League One | Gameweek 23
Dec 27, 2022 at 3pm UK
University of Bolton Stadium
We said: Bolton Wanderers 1-1 Derby County
The two teams are very evenly matched, as indicated by their league positions, so it is difficult to pick a winner on Boxing Day.
As such, we expect that the match will finish as a draw, with both sides maintaining their place in the League One playoffs.
Read more.
Data Analysis Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 47.08% . A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 26.22% .
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.66% . The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.05%) and 2-1 (9%) . The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%) , while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (8.81%) . The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood . Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
Result Bolton Wanderers Draw Derby County 47.08% ( 0.9) 26.7% ( 0.06) 26.22% ( -0.96)
Both teams to score 47.9% ( -0.88)
43.64% ( -0.78) 56.36% ( 0.79)
22.62% ( -0.64) 77.39% ( 0.64)
76.05% ( 0.09) 23.95% ( -0.08)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 41.82% ( 0.12) 58.18% ( -0.12)
62.99% ( -1.23) 37.01% ( 1.23)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 26.2% ( -1.24) 73.8% ( 1.24)
Bolton Wanderers 47.07%
Derby County 26.22%
Draw 26.7%
Bolton Wanderers Draw Derby County 1-0 @ 12.66% ( 0.4) 2-0 @ 9.05% ( 0.31) 2-1 @ 9% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 4.31% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 4.29% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.13% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 1.54% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 1.53% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.55% Total : 47.07% 1-1 @ 12.59% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.86% ( 0.26) 2-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.77% Total : 26.7% 0-1 @ 8.81% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.26% ( -0.22) 0-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.16) 1-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.14) 2-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.11) Other @ 1.77% Total : 26.22%
How you voted: Bolton vs Derby
Bolton Wanderers
Draw
Derby County
50
rhs 2.0
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