League Two

League Two | Gameweek 26

Jan 1, 2024 at 3pm UK

The People's Pension Stadium

Crawley
3 - 1
Swindon

Orsi (9', 53'), Roles (26')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Kemp (90+2')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's League Two clash between Crawley Town and Swindon Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Crawley Town

All competitions

League Two

Last Game: MK Dons 2-0 Crawley
Friday, December 29 at 7.45pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

Swindon Town

All competitions

Last Game: Swindon 2-1 Forest Green
Friday, December 29 at 7.45pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Crawley Town 2-1 Swindon Town

Clashes like this are often tight and intense, with both teams desperate not to lose ground as they are level on points. However, the recent trend in this fixture favours whichever team is at home and we think this trend will continue. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 39.36%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 38.1% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.62%) and 2-0 (4.85%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 1-2 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Crawley Town would win this match.

Result
Crawley Town	Draw	Swindon Town
39.36% ( 0.31)	22.54% ( -0.1)	38.1% ( -0.22)

Both teams to score 67.19% (

0.38)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.54% (

0.49)

33.46% (

-0.49)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.74% (

0.55)

55.25% (

-0.56)

Crawley Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.24% (

0.34)

17.75% (

-0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.56% (

0.59)

48.44% (

-0.59)

Swindon Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.69% (

0.11)

18.3% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.61% (

0.2)

49.38% (

-0.2)

Score Analysis

Crawley Town 39.36%

Swindon Town 38.1%

Draw 22.54%

Crawley Town	Draw	Swindon Town
2-1 @ 8.24% ( 0) 1-0 @ 5.62% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 4.85% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 4.75% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 4.03% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 2.8% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.05% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.74% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.02) 4-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.07% Total : 39.36%	1-1 @ 9.54% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 7% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 3.25% ( -0.08) 3-3 @ 2.28% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.47% Total : 22.54%	1-2 @ 8.1% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 5.52% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 4.69% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 4.58% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.96% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 2.65% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 1.95% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.68% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.13% ( -0.01) 3-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.87% Total : 38.1%