Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 5

Sep 23, 2023 at 2pm UK

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

AC Milan
1 - 0
Hellas Verona

Leao (8')
Thiaw (24'), Musah (58'), Pioli (69+69'), Pulisic (76'), Florenzi (89')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Faraoni (42'), Bonazzoli (55')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Hellas Verona, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: AC Milan 0-0 Newcastle
Tuesday, September 19 at 5.45pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Hellas Verona

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Hellas Verona 0-0 Bologna
Monday, September 18 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: AC Milan 2-0 Hellas Verona

With precedent firmly on their side, Milan can bounce back from a tough week to post their fourth win from five Serie A matches this season. Verona may have overachieved in the early days of the 2023-24 campaign, but their limitations remain more or less the same as last year - and they have never before beaten Milan in a top-flight match at San Siro. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 65.12%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Hellas Verona had a probability of 14.27%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.12%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.8%), while for a Hellas Verona win it was 0-1 (4.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for AC Milan in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for AC Milan.

Result
AC Milan	Draw	Hellas Verona
65.12% ( -0.28)	20.61% ( 0.11)	14.27% ( 0.18)

Both teams to score 47.63% (

0.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.83% (

-0.08)

47.17% (

0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.6% (

-0.07)

69.4% (

0.08)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.3% (

-0.11)

13.7% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.07% (

-0.22)

40.93% (

0.23)

Hellas Verona Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.19% (

0.22)

44.81% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.22% (

0.17)

80.78% (

-0.17)

Score Analysis

AC Milan 65.11%

Hellas Verona 14.27%

Draw 20.61%

AC Milan	Draw	Hellas Verona
1-0 @ 12.2% 2-0 @ 12.12% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 9.74% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 8.04% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 6.45% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 3.99% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 3.21% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.59% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.59% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.29% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.28% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.63% Total : 65.11%	1-1 @ 9.8% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 6.14% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 3.91% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.77% Total : 20.61%	0-1 @ 4.93% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 3.93% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 1.98% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.33% Total : 14.27%