Eredivisie | Gameweek 31

Apr 24, 2024 at 8pm UK

Johan Cruijff Arena

Ajax
2 - 2
Excelsior

Rensch (27'), Akpom (89')
Tahirovic (68'), Benita (73')
Bergwijn (36')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Baas (38' pen.), Lamprou (53')
Horemans (67'), Gaaei (77')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Eredivisie clash between Ajax and SBV Excelsior, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ajax

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Ajax 2-1 FC Twente
Sunday, April 14 at 3.45pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

SBV Excelsior

All competitions

Last Game: Excelsior 4-0 Volendam
Friday, April 12 at 7pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Ajax 2-0 SBV Excelsior

Although Ajax have been inconsistent over a prolonged period of time, the manner of their success over Twente has the potential to flick a switch. With that in mind, we are backing the home side to secure another welcome win on Wednesday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 78%. A draw had a probability of 12.7% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 9.34%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-1 with a probability of 8.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.9%) and 3-0 (7.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.07%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (2.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.

Result
Ajax	Draw	SBV Excelsior
78% ( 2.54)	12.65% ( -1.32)	9.34% ( -1.22)

Both teams to score 62.29% (

1.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

78.62% (

3.14)

21.38% (

-3.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

59.96% (

4.25)

40.03% (

-4.25)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

95.57% (

1.03)

4.42% (

-1.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

81.79% (

3.09)

18.21% (

-3.09)

SBV Excelsior Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.16% (

0.43)

34.83% (

-0.43)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.43% (

0.45)

71.56% (

-0.45)

Score Analysis

Ajax 78%

SBV Excelsior 9.34%

Draw 12.65%

Ajax	Draw	SBV Excelsior
3-1 @ 8.21% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.9% ( -0.58) 3-0 @ 7.79% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 7.49% ( -0.64) 4-1 @ 6.4% ( 0.42) 4-0 @ 6.07% ( 0.33) 1-0 @ 4.8% ( -0.79) 3-2 @ 4.33% ( 0.04) 5-1 @ 3.99% ( 0.51) 5-0 @ 3.79% ( 0.45) 4-2 @ 3.38% ( 0.26) 5-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.29) 6-1 @ 2.08% ( 0.39) 6-0 @ 1.97% ( 0.35) 4-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.1) 6-2 @ 1.1% ( 0.22) 7-1 @ 0.93% ( 0.22) Other @ 4.5% Total : 78%	1-1 @ 5.07% ( -0.76) 2-2 @ 4.17% ( -0.25) 0-0 @ 1.54% ( -0.38) 3-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.36% Total : 12.65%	1-2 @ 2.67% ( -0.37) 0-1 @ 1.62% ( -0.38) 2-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.12) Other @ 2.64% Total : 9.34%