UEFA Conference League

Europa Conference League | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg

Mar 14, 2024 at 8pm UK

Villa Park

Aston Villa
4 - 0
Ajax

(Aston Villa win 4-0 on aggregate)

Watkins (25'), Bailey (60'), Duran (75'), Diaby (81')
Rogers (11'), Watkins (19')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Mannsverk (14')
Mannsverk (66')

Unai Emery plays down injury fears for Villa forward Ollie Watkins

Unai Emery plays down fears that Ollie Watkins suffered a significant knee injury during Aston Villa's 4-0 victory over Ajax on Thursday night.

Mar 14, 23:56

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Aston Villa

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Aston Villa 0-4 Spurs
Sunday, March 10 at 1pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Ajax

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Ajax 2-2 Sittard
Sunday, March 10 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 44.42%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 34.8% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.49%) and 3-2 (5.05%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (6.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.58%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.

Result
Aston Villa	Draw	Ajax
44.42% ( 0.08)	20.78%	34.8% ( -0.09)

Both teams to score 73.64% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

75.05% (

-0.03)

24.95% (

0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

55.15% (

-0.04)

44.85% (

0.03)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.58% (

0.01)

12.42% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61.67% (

0.03)

38.33% (

-0.03)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.08% (

-0.05)

15.91% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.84% (

-0.09)

45.16% (

0.09)

Score Analysis

Aston Villa 44.42%

Ajax 34.8%

Draw 20.78%

Aston Villa	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 7.9% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.49% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 5.05% ( 0) 2-0 @ 4.3% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 4.12% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.99% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.87% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.63% ( 0) 4-3 @ 1.61% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.56% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.2% ( 0) 5-2 @ 1.1% ( 0) Other @ 3.6% Total : 44.42%	1-1 @ 7.58% ( 0) 2-2 @ 7.26% ( -0) 3-3 @ 3.09% ( -0) 0-0 @ 1.98% ( 0) Other @ 0.87% Total : 20.78%	1-2 @ 6.96% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 4.45% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 4.27% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 3.63% 0-2 @ 3.34% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.05% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 2.05% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.96% ( -0.01) 3-4 @ 1.42% ( -0) 0-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.73% Total : 34.8%