Eredivisie | Gameweek 23

Feb 25, 2024 at 3.45pm UK

AFAS Stadion

AZ
2 - 0
Ajax

van Bommel (7', 67')
Bazoer (55'), Goes (79')

FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between AZ Alkmaar and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Sittard 1-2 AZ
Saturday, February 17 at 5.45pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Ajax

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Bodo/Glimt 1-2 Ajax
Thursday, February 22 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League

Goals
for

Top scorers

While AZ have the benefit of having a week of preparation for this game, Ajax are on a high after their Europa Conference League exploits. With that in mind, we are backing the visitors to put in another improved performance to earn a second crucial win in the context of their season in quick succession. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 49.97%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.17%) and 2-0 (5.13%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (6.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Ajax
49.97% ( -0.39)	20.53% ( 0.12)	29.49% ( 0.27)

Both teams to score 71.77% (

-0.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

73.7% (

-0.39)

26.3% (

0.39)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

53.4% (

-0.5)

46.6% (

0.5)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.71% (

-0.24)

11.29% (

0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

64.08% (

-0.53)

35.92% (

0.53)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.9% (

-0.06)

19.1% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.28% (

-0.09)

50.72% (

0.09)

Score Analysis

AZ Alkmaar 49.97%

Ajax 29.49%

Draw 20.53%

AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 8.49% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 6.17% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 5.13% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 5.11% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 4.7% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 3.73% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 3.37% ( -0.06) 4-2 @ 2.79% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 2.03% ( -0.03) 4-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 1.47% ( -0.04) 5-2 @ 1.22% ( -0.03) Other @ 4.22% Total : 49.97%	1-1 @ 7.79% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 7.03% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 2.82% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 2.16% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.74% Total : 20.53%	1-2 @ 6.45% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 3.88% ( -0) 0-1 @ 3.57% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 3.56% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 2.96% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.03) 2-4 @ 1.61% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.47% ( 0.01) 3-4 @ 1.17% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.21% Total : 29.49%