Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 38

Jun 4, 2023 at 8pm UK

Gewiss Stadium

Atalanta
5 - 2
Monza

Koopmeiners (12', 45+1', 79'), Hojlund (74'), Muriel (90+2')
Piero Gasperini (0'), Toloi (64')
Piero Gasperini (67')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Colpani (51'), Petagna (81')
Rovella (33'), Izzo (63')
Santos (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Atalanta BC and Monza, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atalanta BC

All competitions

Last Game: Inter Milan 3-2 Atalanta
Saturday, May 27 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Monza

All competitions

Last Game: Monza 0-1 Lecce
Sunday, May 28 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Atalanta BC 1-1 Monza

Given Atalanta are rarely convincing on home soil and Monza have proved themselves solid when hitting the road, a share of the spoils is on the cards. The visitors recruited well last summer and have forged a fearless mentality; in many ways, following in the footsteps of their hosts - Serie A's serial overachievers. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 59.53%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Monza had a probability of 18.19%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.71%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a Monza win it was 0-1 (5.68%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.

Result
Atalanta BC	Draw	Monza
59.53% ( 0.73)	22.28% ( 0.19)	18.19% ( -0.92)

Both teams to score 50.88% (

-2.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.73% (

-2.18)

47.27% (

2.18)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.5% (

-2.05)

69.5% (

2.06)

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.5% (

-0.5)

15.49% (

0.5)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.61% (

-0.94)

44.39% (

0.94)

Monza Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.21% (

-2.3)

39.79% (

2.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.54% (

-2.18)

76.46% (

2.18)

Score Analysis

Atalanta BC 59.52%

Monza 18.19%

Draw 22.28%

Atalanta BC	Draw	Monza
1-0 @ 11.49% ( 0.83) 2-0 @ 10.71% ( 0.59) 2-1 @ 9.88% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 6.66% ( 0.26) 3-1 @ 6.14% ( -0.14) 4-0 @ 3.11% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 2.86% ( -0.12) 3-2 @ 2.83% ( -0.25) 4-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.14) 5-0 @ 1.16% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.07% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.3% Total : 59.52%	1-1 @ 10.59% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 6.17% ( 0.54) 2-2 @ 4.55% ( -0.32) Other @ 0.97% Total : 22.28%	0-1 @ 5.68% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 4.88% ( -0.25) 0-2 @ 2.62% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.18) 2-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.2) Other @ 2.11% Total : 18.19%