Copa del Rey | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg

Feb 7, 2024 at 8.30pm UK

Estadio Civitas Metropolitano

Atletico
0 - 1
Athletic Bilbao

(Athletic Bilbao win 4-0 on aggregate)

Mandava (23'), Simeone (24'), Simeone (65'), De Paul (83')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Berenguer (25' pen.)
Prados (37'), Vivian (45+2'), Gomez (71'), Ruiz de Galarreta (90+7')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa del Rey clash between Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions

Copa del Rey

Last Game: Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico
Sunday, February 4 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions

Copa del Rey

Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 4-0 Mallorca
Friday, February 2 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Athletic Bilbao

Atletico have gone over a year without losing a competitive game at the Metropolitano, and having won 11 of their last 13 home matches against Athletic, we think that the hosts will do enough to claim a narrow victory in the first leg of the semi-final tie. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 40.8%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 32.58% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (9.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.

Result
Atletico Madrid	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
40.8% ( -0.31)	26.61% ( 0.11)	32.58% ( 0.21)

Both teams to score 51.57% (

-0.29)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.72% (

-0.4)

53.28% (

0.41)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.17% (

-0.34)

74.83% (

0.34)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.3% (

-0.34)

25.71% (

0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.37% (

-0.48)

60.63% (

0.48)

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.41% (

-0.06)

30.59% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.18% (

-0.08)

66.82% (

0.08)

Score Analysis

Atletico Madrid 40.8%

Athletic Bilbao 32.59%

Draw 26.61%

Atletico Madrid	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
1-0 @ 10.68% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 8.59% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 7.26% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 3.89% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 3.29% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 2.31% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.32% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.12% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.35% Total : 40.8%	1-1 @ 12.65% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 7.86% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 5.09% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.61%	0-1 @ 9.31% ( 0.13) 1-2 @ 7.49% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 5.52% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 2.96% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.18% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.11% Total : 32.59%