Copa del Rey | Quarter-Finals

Jan 25, 2024 at 8pm UK

Estadio Civitas Metropolitano

Atletico
1 - 0
Sevilla

Depay (79')
Gimenez (63'), Hermoso (71'), Koke (75'), Simeone (90+5')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Torres (33'), Ramos (39'), Pedrosa (62'), Lamela (73'), Rakitic (82'), Mir (90+8')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa del Rey clash between Atletico Madrid and Sevilla, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions

Copa del Rey

Last Game: Granada 0-1 Atletico
Monday, January 22 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Sevilla

All competitions

Copa del Rey

Last Game: Girona 5-1 Sevilla
Sunday, January 21 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Atletico Madrid 3-1 Sevilla

Atletico may not be as watertight at the back as the Simeone teams of old, but Los Rojiblancos remain unyielding in front of the Metropolitano faithful and have not lost to Sevilla on home territory since the 2017-18 Copa del Rey, a streak which ought to be extended on Thursday. While the visitors have won for fun away from home in this season's tournament, things could turn ugly pretty quickly if they fail to learn the lessons from their Girona annihilation, and we can only picture Atletico strolling into the final four. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 52.43%. A win for Sevilla had a probability of 24.63% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.02%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest Sevilla win was 1-2 (6.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico Madrid	Draw	Sevilla
52.43% ( -0.02)	22.94% ( -0.04)	24.63% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 58.16% (

0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.85% (

0.2)

42.15% (

-0.21)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.44% (

0.2)

64.55% (

-0.21)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.88% (

0.06)

16.12% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.46% (

0.12)

45.53% (

-0.13)

Sevilla Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.34% (

0.15)

30.66% (

-0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.09% (

0.18)

66.91% (

-0.18)

Score Analysis

Atletico Madrid 52.43%

Sevilla 24.63%

Draw 22.94%

Atletico Madrid	Draw	Sevilla
2-1 @ 9.73% ( -0) 1-0 @ 9.02% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 8.23% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 5.92% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 5.01% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.5% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.7% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.29% 4-2 @ 1.6% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 0.99% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.45% Total : 52.43%	1-1 @ 10.66% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.75% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.94% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 1.38% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.2% Total : 22.94%	1-2 @ 6.3% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.84% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 3.45% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.48% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.27% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.36% ( 0) Other @ 2.92% Total : 24.63%