Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Girona win with a probability of 44.8%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 30.35% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Girona win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.18%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Girona would win this match.
Result | ||
Girona | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
44.8% ( 0.08) | 24.84% ( 0.44) | 30.35% ( -0.51) |
Both teams to score 56.39% ( -1.77) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.39% ( -2.19) | 46.61% ( 2.2) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.12% ( -2.09) | 68.88% ( 2.09) |
Girona Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.14% ( -0.87) | 20.86% ( 0.87) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.45% ( -1.38) | 53.55% ( 1.38) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.26% ( -1.43) | 28.74% ( 1.44) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.42% ( -1.82) | 64.58% ( 1.82) |
Score Analysis |
Girona | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
1-0 @ 9.4% ( 0.61) 2-1 @ 9.18% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.37% ( 0.29) 3-1 @ 4.8% ( -0.13) 3-0 @ 3.85% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.21) 4-1 @ 1.88% ( -0.1) 4-0 @ 1.51% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.17% ( -0.12) Other @ 2.66% Total : 44.8% | 1-1 @ 11.71% ( 0.31) 0-0 @ 6% ( 0.54) 2-2 @ 5.72% ( -0.23) 3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.84% | 0-1 @ 7.48% ( 0.39) 1-2 @ 7.3% ( -0.1) 0-2 @ 4.66% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 3.04% ( -0.17) 2-3 @ 2.38% ( -0.2) 0-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.62% Total : 30.35% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 36 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 83 | 22 | 61 | 93 |
2 | Barcelona | 35 | 23 | 7 | 5 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 76 |
3 | GironaGirona | 36 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 75 | 45 | 30 | 75 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 36 | 23 | 4 | 9 | 67 | 39 | 28 | 73 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 36 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 62 |
6 | Real BetisBetis | 35 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 46 | 41 | 5 | 55 |
7 | Real Sociedad | 35 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 48 | 37 | 11 | 54 |
8 | Villarreal | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 60 | 60 | 0 | 51 |
9 | Valencia | 35 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 48 |
10 | Getafe | 36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 43 |
11 | AlavesAlaves | 36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 42 |
12 | Sevilla | 36 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 41 |
13 | Osasuna | 36 | 11 | 8 | 17 | 40 | 54 | -14 | 41 |
14 | Rayo Vallecano | 36 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 38 |
15 | Celta Vigo | 36 | 9 | 10 | 17 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 37 |
16 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 44 | -14 | 37 |
17 | Mallorca | 36 | 7 | 15 | 14 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 36 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 36 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 32 |
R | Granada | 36 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 37 | 70 | -33 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 35 | 2 | 11 | 22 | 35 | 70 | -35 | 17 |
> La Liga Full Table |