Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 7

Oct 7, 2023 at 2.30pm UK

Signal-Iduna-Park

Dortmund
4 - 2
Union Berlin

Fullkrug (7'), Schlotterbeck (49'), Brandt (54'), Ryerson (71')
Hummels (30')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Gosens (9'), Bonucci (31' pen.)
Gosens (64')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Dortmund 0-0 AC Milan
Wednesday, October 4 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Union Berlin

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Union Berlin 2-3 Braga
Tuesday, October 3 at 5.45pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Union Berlin

What we have here are two sides with completely contrasting forms. Dortmund's home record has been incredible for over a year now, and their record against this opponent adds to our confidence that they will secure another win here. Unfortunately for the visitors, if that is to be the case, it will equate to their seventh consecutive loss in all competitions. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 57.26%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 21.79% and a draw had a probability of 21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.02%) and 1-0 (7.71%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 1-2 (5.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.37%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Union Berlin
57.26% ( 0.31)	20.95% ( -0.05)	21.79% ( -0.27)

Both teams to score 61.54% (

-0.22)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.95% (

-0.12)

36.04% (

0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.85% (

-0.13)

58.14% (

0.13)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.5% (

0.05)

12.5% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61.51% (

0.11)

38.49% (

-0.11)

Union Berlin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.33% (

-0.3)

29.66% (

0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.29% (

-0.36)

65.71% (

0.36)

Score Analysis

Borussia Dortmund 57.26%

Union Berlin 21.79%

Draw 20.95%

Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Union Berlin
2-1 @ 9.74% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.02% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 7.71% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 6.75% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 5.56% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 4.1% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 3.51% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.89% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 2.13% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.46% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.02) Other @ 4.18% Total : 57.26%	1-1 @ 9.37% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.92% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 3.71% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.29% Total : 20.95%	1-2 @ 5.69% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 4.51% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.4% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.31% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.04% Total : 21.79%