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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 58.81%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 21.14% and a draw had a probability of 20%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.56%) and 1-3 (7.05%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 2-1 (5.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
Result | ||
Freiburg | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
21.14% ( 0.35) | 20.05% ( 0.4) | 58.81% ( -0.74) |
Both teams to score 63.92% ( -0.96) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
67.47% ( -1.47) | 32.53% ( 1.48) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.82% ( -1.72) | 54.18% ( 1.73) |
Freiburg Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.8% ( -0.56) | 28.2% ( 0.56) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.1% ( -0.72) | 63.9% ( 0.72) |
Borussia Dortmund Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.03% ( -0.63) | 10.97% ( 0.64) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
64.8% ( -1.43) | 35.2% ( 1.43) |
Score Analysis |
Freiburg | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
2-1 @ 5.48% ( 0.12) 1-0 @ 3.91% ( 0.24) 3-2 @ 2.55% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 2.48% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 2.31% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.37% Total : 21.14% | 1-1 @ 8.65% ( 0.32) 2-2 @ 6.05% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 3.09% ( 0.24) 3-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.37% Total : 20.05% | 1-2 @ 9.56% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 7.56% ( 0.2) 1-3 @ 7.05% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 6.84% ( 0.36) 0-3 @ 5.57% 2-3 @ 4.46% ( -0.14) 1-4 @ 3.89% ( -0.17) 0-4 @ 3.08% ( -0.08) 2-4 @ 2.46% ( -0.15) 1-5 @ 1.72% ( -0.12) 0-5 @ 1.36% ( -0.08) 2-5 @ 1.09% ( -0.1) 3-4 @ 1.04% ( -0.08) Other @ 3.14% Total : 58.81% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 89 | 24 | 65 | 90 |
2 | Stuttgart | 34 | 23 | 4 | 7 | 78 | 39 | 39 | 73 |
3 | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 23 | 3 | 8 | 94 | 45 | 49 | 72 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 77 | 39 | 38 | 65 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 68 | 43 | 25 | 63 |
6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 51 | 50 | 1 | 47 |
7 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 66 | 66 | 0 | 46 |
8 | Heidenheim | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 50 | 55 | -5 | 42 |
9 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 48 | 54 | -6 | 42 |
10 | Freiburg | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 45 | 58 | -13 | 42 |
11 | Augsburg | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 50 | 60 | -10 | 39 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 37 |
13 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 35 |
14 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 34 |
15 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 33 | 58 | -25 | 33 |
16 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 42 | 74 | -32 | 33 |
R | FC Koln | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 28 | 60 | -32 | 27 |
R | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 34 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 30 | 86 | -56 | 17 |
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