Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 1

Aug 13, 2023 at 12pm UK

Stade Francis-Le Ble

Brest
3 - 2
Lens

Del Castillo (45+2' pen., 87' pen.), Lala (56')
Lees-Melou (35'), Brassier (45+4')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Sotoca (10'), Machado (22')
Sotoca (48'), Medina (52'), Samba (85')
Thomasson (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Brest and Lens, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Brest

All competitions

Last Game: Brest 1-2 Rennes
Saturday, June 3 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Lens

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Man Utd 3-1 Lens
Saturday, August 5 at 12.45pm in Club Friendlies 1

Goals
for

Given what Lens achieved last term, we expect the Blood and Gold to claim all three points on the opening weekend, although Brest will likely give last season's runners-up a run for their money after finishing the previous campaign on a high. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 44.74%. A win for Brest had a probability of 29.19% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.03%) and 0-2 (8.03%). The likeliest Brest win was 1-0 (8.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.

Result
Brest	Draw	Lens
29.19% ( 0.96)	26.06% ( 0.47)	44.74% ( -1.43)

Both teams to score 51.79% (

-0.86)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.69% (

-1.4)

52.31% (

1.4)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26% (

-1.22)

74% (

1.22)

Brest Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.52% (

-0.01)

32.48% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.99% (

-0.01)

69% (

0.01)

Lens Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.71% (

-1.26)

23.29% (

1.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.77% (

-1.87)

57.23% (

1.87)

Score Analysis

Brest 29.19%

Lens 44.74%

Draw 26.06%

Brest	Draw	Lens
1-0 @ 8.51% ( 0.46) 2-1 @ 6.97% ( 0.12) 2-0 @ 4.78% ( 0.26) 3-1 @ 2.61% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 1.9% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 1.79% ( 0.1) Other @ 2.62% Total : 29.19%	1-1 @ 12.39% ( 0.22) 0-0 @ 7.57% ( 0.41) 2-2 @ 5.08% ( -0.1) 3-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.06%	0-1 @ 11.02% ( 0.2) 1-2 @ 9.03% ( -0.18) 0-2 @ 8.03% ( -0.16) 1-3 @ 4.39% ( -0.26) 0-3 @ 3.9% ( -0.23) 2-3 @ 2.47% ( -0.15) 1-4 @ 1.6% ( -0.16) 0-4 @ 1.42% ( -0.14) Other @ 2.89% Total : 44.74%