Eredivisie | Gameweek 21

Feb 11, 2024 at 1.30pm UK

Abe Lenstra Stadion

Heerenveen
3 - 2
Ajax

van Amersfoort (11', 46'), Sahraoui (38')
van Beek (49'), Kohlert (51'), Braude (65'), Bochniewicz (72')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Bochniewicz (51' og.), Akpom (79')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between Heerenveen and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Heerenveen

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Sittard 3-3 Heerenveen
Saturday, February 3 at 5.45pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Ajax

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Ajax 1-1 PSV
Saturday, February 3 at 7pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Although Heerenveen have shown some life in recent matches, playing host to Ajax remains one of Dutch football's toughest games. While we expect the home side to get on the scoresheet, the visitors should have too much quality in the final third. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 39.97%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 38.76% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (4.94%) and 2-3 (4.66%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 2-1 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.

Result
Heerenveen	Draw	Ajax
38.76% ( -0.88)	21.27% ( -0.03)	39.97% ( 0.9)

Both teams to score 72.38% (

0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

73.19% (

0.12)

26.8% (

-0.12)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

52.76% (

0.15)

47.24% (

-0.16)

Heerenveen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.85% (

-0.29)

15.15% (

0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.26% (

-0.54)

43.73% (

0.53)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.3% (

0.39)

14.69% (

-0.39)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.13% (

0.74)

42.86% (

-0.75)

Score Analysis

Heerenveen 38.76%

Ajax 39.97%

Draw 21.27%

Heerenveen	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 7.6% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 4.78% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 4.59% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 4.2% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 3.96% ( -0.11) 3-0 @ 2.49% ( -0.1) 4-1 @ 2.26% ( -0.08) 4-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.04) 4-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.18% ( -0.06) Other @ 4.15% Total : 38.76%	1-1 @ 8.05% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 7.29% ( 0) 3-3 @ 2.93% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 2.23% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.77% Total : 21.27%	1-2 @ 7.72% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 4.94% ( 0.12) 2-3 @ 4.66% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 4.27% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 4.09% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 2.62% ( 0.09) 1-4 @ 2.37% ( 0.09) 2-4 @ 2.24% ( 0.06) 3-4 @ 1.41% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.26% ( 0.06) 1-5 @ 0.91% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.49% Total : 39.97%