Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Semi-Finals

Mar 21, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Sammy Ofer Stadium

Israel
1 - 4
Iceland

Zahavi (31' pen.)
Zahavi (73')
Revivo (73')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Gudmundsson (39', 83', 87'), Ingvi Traustason (42')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Israel and Iceland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Israel

All competitions

Last Game: Andorra 0-2 Israel
Tuesday, November 21 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group I Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Romania	10	11	22
2	Switzerland	10	11	17
3	Israel	10	0	15
4	Belarus	10	-5	12
5	Kosovo	10	0	11
6	Andorra	10	-17	2

Iceland

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Honduras 0-2 Iceland
Thursday, January 18 at 1am in International Friendlies

Current Group J Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	10	34	30
2	Slovakia	10	9	22
3	Luxembourg	10	-6	17
4	Iceland	10	1	10
5	Bosnia-Herzegovina	10	-11	9
6	Liechtenstein	10	-27	0

We said: Israel 1-1 Iceland (a.e.t - Iceland to win on penalties)

The last two meetings between these two teams in the UEFA Nations League finished as 2-2 draws and another closely-fought contest could be in store on Thursday, one that may even go beyond the 90 minutes. This fixture could go either way, with both nations possessing key players who ply their trade in a number of respected European leagues, but we are backing Iceland to come on top on this occasion in a nail-biting penalty shootout. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Israel win with a probability of 49.94%. A win for Iceland had a probability of 26.22% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Israel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.51%) and 2-0 (8.15%). The likeliest Iceland win was 1-2 (6.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.

Result
Israel	Draw	Iceland
49.94% ( 0.9)	23.84% ( -0.2)	26.22% ( -0.7)

Both teams to score 56.72% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.2% (

0.34)

44.8% (

-0.34)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.84% (

0.33)

67.16% (

-0.33)

Israel Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.98% (

0.48)

18.02% (

-0.48)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.1% (

0.82)

48.9% (

-0.82)

Iceland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.19% (

-0.36)

30.81% (

0.36)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.92% (

-0.42)

67.08% (

0.42)

Score Analysis

Israel 49.94%

Iceland 26.22%

Draw 23.84%

Israel	Draw	Iceland
2-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 9.51% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.15% ( 0.13) 3-1 @ 5.48% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 4.66% ( 0.15) 3-2 @ 3.23% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 2.35% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 2% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 1.38% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.57% Total : 49.94%	1-1 @ 11.2% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 5.65% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.55% ( -0.08) 3-3 @ 1.27% ( 0) Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.84%	1-2 @ 6.59% ( -0.13) 0-1 @ 6.54% ( -0.16) 0-2 @ 3.85% ( -0.14) 1-3 @ 2.59% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 2.22% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.93% Total : 26.22%