Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 15, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stadion Slaski

Poland
1 - 1
Moldova

Swiderski (53')
Frankowski (46')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Nicolaescu (25')
Reabciuk (17'), Cojocaru (21'), Postolachi (42'), Marandici (45+4'), Platica (82'), Railean (85')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Poland and Moldova, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Poland

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Faroe Islands 0-2 Poland
Thursday, October 12 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Albania	6	8	13
2	Poland	6	0	9
3	Czech Republic	5	2	8
4	Moldova	5	0	8
5	Faroe Islands	6	-10	1

Moldova

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Sweden 3-1 Moldova
Thursday, October 12 at 6pm in International Friendlies

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Albania	6	8	13
2	Poland	6	0	9
3	Czech Republic	5	2	8
4	Moldova	5	0	8
5	Faroe Islands	6	-10	1

Basking in the new manager bounce and also out for a slice of vengeance for events in the summer, the stage is set for Poland to finally break their loss-win streak with back-to-back Group E triumphs on Sunday. Moldova undoubtedly command respect given their unexpected feats in the section so far, but with their morale taking a hit in Sweden, repeating June's historic win over Poland at the hosts' Warsaw base is surely a step too far. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Poland win with a probability of 53.29%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Moldova had a probability of 20.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Poland win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.34%) and 2-1 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.12%), while for a Moldova win it was 0-1 (8.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.

Result
Poland	Draw	Moldova
53.29% ( 0.01)	26.67% ( -0)	20.03% ( -0)

Both teams to score 41.63% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.86% (

61.14% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.9% (

81.1% (

-0)

Poland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.81% (

23.19% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.91% (

57.08% (

-0.01)

Moldova Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.19% (

-0)

45.8% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.43% (

-0)

81.57% (

Score Analysis

Poland 53.29%

Moldova 20.03%

Draw 26.67%

Poland	Draw	Moldova
1-0 @ 15.52% 2-0 @ 11.34% 2-1 @ 8.86% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.53% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.32% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.02% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.68% 4-1 @ 1.58% Other @ 2.45% Total : 53.29%	1-1 @ 12.12% 0-0 @ 10.62% 2-2 @ 3.46% Other @ 0.47% Total : 26.67%	0-1 @ 8.29% ( -0) 1-2 @ 4.73% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.24% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.23% Other @ 2.54% Total : 20.03%