FA Cup

FA Cup | Third Round

Jan 6, 2024 at 3pm UK

Bet365 Stadium

Stoke
2 - 4
Brighton

Paul van Hecke (16' og.), Baker (63' pen.)
Hoever (13'), Rose (37'), Bae (48')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Estupinan (45+6'), Dunk (52'), Pedro (71', 80')
Paul van Hecke (8'), Buonanotte (37')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Stoke City and Brighton & Hove Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Stoke City

All competitions

Last Game: Stoke 0-0 Ipswich
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Brighton & Hove Albion

All competitions

Last Game: West Ham 0-0 Brighton
Tuesday, January 2 at 7.30pm in Premier League

Goals
for

We said: Stoke City 0-2 Brighton & Hove Albion

A closely-fought contest was played out between these two teams last year, and another tight affair could be in store, although Brighton will be regarded as the favourites to progress to the fourth round. Neither side will be at full strength on Saturday, but the Seagulls boast a deeper squad and the players selected by De Zerbi should ultimately have the quality to get the job done against Championship opposition. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brighton & Hove Albion win with a probability of 38.74%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 35.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brighton & Hove Albion win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (6.28%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 1-0 (8.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brighton & Hove Albion would win this match.

Result
Stoke City	Draw	Brighton & Hove Albion
35.87% ( -0.06)	25.39% ( -0)	38.74% ( 0.06)

Both teams to score 56.28% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.47% (

0.01)

47.52% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.27% (

0.01)

69.73% (

-0.01)

Stoke City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.24% (

-0.03)

25.76% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.3% (

-0.03)

60.7% (

0.03)

Brighton & Hove Albion Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.81% (

0.03)

24.18% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.48% (

0.05)

58.51% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Stoke City 35.87%

Brighton & Hove Albion 38.74%

Draw 25.39%

Stoke City	Draw	Brighton & Hove Albion
1-0 @ 8.45% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.13% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 5.73% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.68% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.61% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.59% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.25% ( -0) Other @ 3.43% Total : 35.87%	1-1 @ 11.99% 0-0 @ 6.23% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.77% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.24% ( 0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.39%	0-1 @ 8.84% ( 0) 1-2 @ 8.51% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 6.28% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 4.03% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.97% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.73% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.43% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.05% ( 0) 2-4 @ 0.97% ( 0) Other @ 1.92% Total : 38.74%