Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 45%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 29.61% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (7.74%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 0-1 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vizela would win this match.
Result | ||
Vizela | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
45% ( -0.35) | 25.39% ( 0.01) | 29.61% ( 0.34) |
Both teams to score 54.17% ( 0.15) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.68% ( 0.1) | 49.32% ( -0.1) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.63% ( 0.09) | 71.37% ( -0.09) |
Vizela Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.1% ( -0.12) | 21.9% ( 0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.84% ( -0.18) | 55.16% ( 0.18) |
Estrela Amadora Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.36% ( 0.29) | 30.64% ( -0.29) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.12% ( 0.34) | 66.88% ( -0.34) |
Score Analysis |
Vizela | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
1-0 @ 10.18% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 9.15% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 7.74% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 4.63% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 3.92% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.74% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.76% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.49% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.04% ( -0) Other @ 2.34% Total : 44.99% | 1-1 @ 12.05% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.71% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.41% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.38% | 0-1 @ 7.94% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 7.13% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 4.7% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 2.81% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.14% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.05% Total : 29.61% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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