Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 36

May 20, 2023 at 8pm UK

Stade Lille-Metropole

Lille
2 - 1
Marseille

David (50' pen.), Bamba (72')
Andre (57'), Bamba (73'), Bayo (85')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Clauss (29')
Balerdi (37'), Rongier (55')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Lille and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lille

All competitions

Last Game: Monaco 0-0 Lille
Sunday, May 14 at 4.05pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Marseille

All competitions

Last Game: Marseille 3-1 Angers
Sunday, May 14 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

While Lille's last home defeat came all the way back in August, Marseille have remained a serious threat on the road throughout the campaign, meaning that Saturday's showdown is destined to be a close-fought battle. Accordingly, we can see Lille and Marseille serving up an entertaining encounter at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy, with the two sides sharing the spoils. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 48.12%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 26.23% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (8.81%). The likeliest Marseille win was 0-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.

Result
Lille	Draw	Marseille
48.12% ( 0.27)	25.64% ( -0.09)	26.23% ( -0.17)

Both teams to score 50.99% (

0.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.64% (

0.26)

52.36% (

-0.26)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.96% (

0.23)

74.04% (

-0.22)

Lille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.23% (

0.23)

21.76% (

-0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.05% (

0.34)

54.95% (

-0.34)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.17% (

34.83% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.44% (

0.01)

71.56%

Score Analysis

Lille 48.12%

Marseille 26.23%

Draw 25.64%

Lille	Draw	Marseille
1-0 @ 11.55% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.3% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 8.81% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 4.73% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 4.48% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.49% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.8% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.71% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 0.95% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.3% Total : 48.12%	1-1 @ 12.19% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 7.58% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 4.9% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.97% Total : 25.64%	0-1 @ 8% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 6.43% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 4.22% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.72% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.12% Total : 26.23%