Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 3

Aug 20, 2022 at 8pm UK

Stade Velodrome

Marseille
2 - 1
Nantes

Mbemba (70'), Pallois (82' og.)
Rongier (55'), Gigot (60'), Lopez (76'), Veretout (90+3')
Gigot (76')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Blas (78' pen.)
Guessand (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Nantes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

Last Six:

Last Game: Brest 1-1 Marseille
Sunday, August 14 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
3	Lille	2	3	4
4	Marseille	2	3	4
5	Toulouse	2	3	4

Nantes

Last Six:

Last Game: Nantes 1-1 Lille
Friday, August 12 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
12	Nice	2	0	2
13	Nantes	2	0	2
14	Brest	2	-1	1

Nantes are likely to be tricky opposition for Marseille, and the home side might need to be patient when it comes to grinding out a result here. We are not expecting a high-scoring contest on Saturday but believe that last season's runners-up will be able to claim all three points in front of their own supporters. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 60.58%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Nantes had a probability of 17.72%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.62%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.3%), while for a Nantes win it was 0-1 (5.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
Marseille	Draw	Nantes
60.58% ( 0.61)	21.71% ( -0.2)	17.72% ( -0.4)

Both teams to score 51.82% (

-0.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.44% (

0.25)

45.56% (

-0.24)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.11% (

0.23)

67.89% (

-0.23)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.42% (

0.28)

14.58% (

-0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.34% (

0.53)

42.66% (

-0.53)

Nantes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.67% (

-0.32)

39.33% (

0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.97% (

-0.3)

76.03% (

0.31)

Score Analysis

Marseille 60.57%

Nantes 17.72%

Draw 21.7%

Marseille	Draw	Nantes
1-0 @ 11.04% 2-0 @ 10.62% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 9.92% ( 0) 3-0 @ 6.82% ( 0.13) 3-1 @ 6.37% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 3.28% ( 0.09) 4-1 @ 3.06% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 2.97% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.43% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.05) 5-1 @ 1.18% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.61% Total : 60.57%	1-1 @ 10.3% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 5.74% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 4.63% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 21.7%	0-1 @ 5.35% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 4.81% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 2.5% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.12% Total : 17.72%