Hosts Mainz have lost all three matches so far this campaign, conceding 11 goals with only two in response. Leverkusen, meanwhile, have drawn all three games, also scoring twice but only conceding twice.

Match preview

Mainz duo Bote Baku and Pierre Kundu celebrate against Union Berlin on May 27, 2020 © Reuters

It has certainly been a tumultuous beginning to the new season for Mainz, with an opening day loss to RB Leipzig followed up by the club's playing staff choosing to go on strike after forward Adam Szalai was forced to train away from the first team.

Manager Achim Beierlorzer was subsequently sacked after the disastrous 4-1 home defeat to newly-promoted side Stuttgart, with interim coach Jan-Moritz Lichte not exactly making a strong case for the job on a full-time basis in his first game in charge in the equally-dismal 4-0 loss at Union Berlin prior to the international break.

As a bare minimum against Leverkusen, Die Nullfunfer fans will be expecting to see passion and commitment on display, especially as they know the players are capable of doing so after only narrowly losing both league meetings 1-0 last season.

Indeed, while they remain unbeaten with three draws, Leverkusen have made a slightly stuttering start to the campaign themselves having lost key forwards Kai Havertz to Chelsea and Kevin Volland to Monaco in the summer.

Bayer Leverkusen manager Peter Bosz pictured in February 2019 © Reuters

The dynamic duo both hit double figures in the league last campaign, so it is perhaps unsurprising that Peter Bosz's side are struggling for goals and creativity at present.

Patrik Schick did at least arrive to bolster Bosz's ranks, though, with the Czech Republic striker scoring his first goal for the club in the 1-1 draw at Stuttgart prior to the international break.

Having narrowly missed out on Champions League qualification last campaign, Die Werkself fans will be expecting the new season to fully get up and running with a win here given their opponent's recent struggles and general lack of quality.

Anything less than that could result in a mildly indifferent start being framed as something significantly worse and Bosz begin to be placed under more serious scrutiny.

Mainz 05 Bundesliga form: LLL
Mainz 05 form (all competitions): WLLL

Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga form: DDD
Bayer Leverkusen form (all competitions): WDDD

Team News

RB Leipzig's Lukas Klostermann and Mainz 05's Robin Quaison in action in May 2020 © Reuters

Moussa Niakhate will return from suspension for Mainz after missing the trip to Union Berlin, and will likely come back in for Alexander Hack in defence.

Stefan Bell and Edimilson Fernandes should be available again after testing positive for coronavirus more than two weeks ago, while former Sunderland forward Ji Dong-Won is reported to have recovered from a knee injury, meaning Lichte may have the luxury of a clean bill of health for this match.

Paulinho and Santiago Arias are long-term absentees for Leverkusen with a cruciate ligament rupture and fibula fracture respectively, while Schick will be missing for at least a couple of weeks with a torn muscle fibre.

Lucas Alario is in line to lead the attack in his absence, while winger Leon Bailey is also pushing for a start but is likely to appear from the bench as he has done in the last two matches.

Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Mwene, St. Juste, Niakhate, Brosinski; Latza, Kuende; Onisiwo, Boetius, Quaison; Mateta

Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; L. Bender, S. Bender, Tapsoba, Sinkgraven; Bellarabi, Aranguiz, Wirtz, Demirbay, Diaby; Alario

SM words green background

We say: Mainz 05 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen

We do not expect Mainz to be as bad defensively as they have been in recent weeks, but equally it is hard to see beyond a Leverkusen win even without Schick leading the line.

Both games were tight 1-0 victories for Leverkusen last season and we can see something similar here, with Mainz digging in for large spells of the game but ultimately the visitors' extra quality and class making the difference in key moments in order to pick up their first win of the campaign.

Top betting tip

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 60.53%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 19%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9%) and 0-1 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.37%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 2-1 (5.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.