Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Columbus Crew win with a probability of 39%. A win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 36.27% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Columbus Crew win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.11%) and 0-2 (6.02%). The likeliest Chicago Fire win was 2-1 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Columbus Crew would win this match.
Result | ||
Chicago Fire | Draw | Columbus Crew |
36.27% ( 0.04) | 24.73% ( 0.03) | 39% ( -0.07) |
Both teams to score 58.7% ( -0.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.57% ( -0.12) | 44.43% ( 0.12) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.2% ( -0.12) | 66.8% ( 0.11) |
Chicago Fire Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.9% ( -0.03) | 24.1% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.61% ( -0.04) | 58.39% ( 0.04) |
Columbus Crew Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.33% ( -0.09) | 22.67% ( 0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.69% ( -0.13) | 56.31% ( 0.13) |
Score Analysis |
Chicago Fire | Draw | Columbus Crew |
2-1 @ 8.21% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.77% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 5.53% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.89% 3-2 @ 2.89% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.62% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.39% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.03% ( -0) 4-0 @ 0.93% ( 0) Other @ 2% Total : 36.27% | 1-1 @ 11.53% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.09% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.46% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.72% | 1-2 @ 8.56% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.11% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 6.02% ( -0) 1-3 @ 4.24% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 3.01% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.98% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.57% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.29% Total : 39% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 39 | 24 | 15 | 34 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 33 |
3 | New York City FCNY City | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 29 |
4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 26 |
5 | Columbus Crew | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 24 |
6 | Toronto | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 23 |
7 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 22 |
8 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 19 |
9 | Nashville SCNashville | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 19 |
10 | DC United | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 18 |
11 | Orlando City | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 17 |
12 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 16 |
13 | CF MontrealMontreal | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 16 |
14 | Chicago Fire | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 12 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 7 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 31 | 18 | 13 | 30 |
2 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 28 |
3 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
4 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 25 |
5 | Austin FCAustin | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 23 |
6 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 22 |
7 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 22 |
8 | Houston DynamoHouston | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 21 |
9 | Portland TimbersPortland | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 19 |
10 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 18 |
11 | St Louis City | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 16 |
12 | Dallas | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 13 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 11 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 39 | -15 | 11 |