Netherlands

3 - 2

Wales

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 60.17%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Wales had a probability of 16.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.96%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.89%), while for a Wales win it was 0-1 (6.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Netherlands would win this match.