Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between Orlando City and Charlotte FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Orlando City will have the chance to get back to winning ways at the first time of asking this Sunday when they welcome Charlotte FC to the Exploria Stadium.

The visitors are without a win in their previous two Major League Soccer performances, and they head into this match having failed to win three of their most recent away games in the division.

Match preview

Orlando City forward Ercan Kara (9) celebrates with Orlando City forward Alexandre Pato (7) after an assists goal in the second half against the Chicago Fire at Orlando City Stadium on April 9, 2022 © Reuters

Orlando City may have lost their most recent fixture, but they do sit third in the Eastern Conference heading into the latest round of matches as they face Charlotte for the first time ever.

The Lions were comfortably beaten 3-0 last Sunday by the New York Red Bulls, with goals from Luquinhas, Cristian Casseres and Lewis Morgan putting the game to bed.

Oscar Pareja's side actually dominated that match in terms of possession, having 65% of the ball throughout the 90 minutes, but he will now want to see his team utilise that more.

The visitors this weekend have failed to win a single match away from home so far in the MLS, providing Orlando with an ideal opportunity to get back to winning ways.

A victory on Sunday could see the Lions climb to the top of the division if those ahead of them slip up, and they will want to maintain the fact they have not lost consecutive games yet this season.

Charlotte FC head coach Miguel Ramirez during the first half against the FC Cincinnati at Bank of America Stadium on March 27, 2022 © Reuters

For Charlotte, they shall be hoping to build confidence from the goalless draw that they had with Colorado last weekend, which pushed them to just outside the playoffs.

Only goal difference is keeping them out of the top seven right now, and a win in this match would actually put them just a point behind their opponents in the table.

Miguel Ramirez has seen more consistency from his squad as of late, with the team winning three of their previous four outings.

However, Charlotte are without a win away from home, and they have only scored twice in their five MLS games away from the Bank of America Stadium.

Despite that, they did pick up a 2-1 victory in the U.S. Open Cup third-round match which was on the road against Greenville Triumph, with goals from Christian Ortiz and Harrison Afful securing the result.

Orlando City Major League Soccer form:

Orlando City form (all competitions):

Charlotte FC Major League Soccer form:

Charlotte FC form (all competitions):

Team News

Orlando City head coach Oscar Pareja looks on before the match against the Portland Timbers at Providence Park on March 27, 2022 © Reuters

Antonio Carlos remains an injury doubt for Orlando, as he has been unavailable recently due to a thigh problem, which could lead to him sitting on the sidelines again.

Alexandre Pato is expected to bring his attacking experience to the Lions on Sunday, while Ercan Kara will likely lead the line on his own with three behind him.

Charlotte FC have been without Chris Hegardt, Kamil Jozwiak and Vinicius Mello recently due to injuries, and there are question marks surrounding all three men heading into this weekend.

The same back four will likely be kept after keeping a clean sheet last weekend, while Brandt Bronico could continue sitting in front of them as a defensive midfielder.

Orlando City possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Teixeira, Schlegel, Jansson, Moutinho; Urso, Araujo; Pato, Torres, Pereya; Kara

Charlotte FC possible starting lineup:
Kahlina; Lindsey, Corujo, Fuchs, Mora; Bronico; Franco, Ortiz, Alcivar; Rios, Swiderski

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We say: Orlando City 2-0 Charlotte FC

Orlando City shall be pushing to get straight back to winning ways in this match, and they have proven their ability to respond to defeats already this season.

Considering the fact that Charlotte are yet to win an away game in the MLS this season, this should be one for the Lions to take three points.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orlando City win with a probability of 53.82%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Charlotte FC had a probability of 22.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Orlando City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.75%) and 2-0 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.31%), while for a Charlotte FC win it was 0-1 (6.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Orlando City would win this match.