Porto head into their Primeira Liga encounter against Nacional on Sunday hoping that they can close the gap at the top of the table between themselves and rivals Sporting Lisbon in their quest to retain the title.

Meanwhile, Nacional's 3-1 home defeat against Santa Clara sees them sit seven places above the relegation zone but only three points clear as things stand.

Match preview

Porto head coach Sergio Conceicao pictured on November 3, 2020 © Reuters

Since an entertaining 4-3 victory over Tondela at the beginning of this month, Porto have played in three different competitions, winning every match.

Sergio Conceicao has watched his side defeat Olympiacos in their final Champions League group stage match – finishing second behind Manchester City – before victories against Tondela in the Taca de Portugal and Pacos de Ferreira in the Taca da Liga, both by a 2-1 scoreline.

Porto now turn their attention back to the Primeira Liga, where they currently sit in third place, four points behind league leaders Sporting Lisbon.

The Dragoes have an impressive record against this Sunday's opponents, having defeated Nacional in each of their last six encounters by an aggregate score of 24-2.

Another victory this weekend would be their seventh in the league and could move them into second place if Benfica were to drop points against Gil Vicente.

Porto players celebrate scoring against Marseille in the Champions League on November 3, 2020 © Reuters

Since their promotion from the second tier, Nacional have had an inconsistent start to life back in the Primeira Liga.

After an unbeaten run of three matches, the Alvinegros have recently suffered back-to-back defeats against Portimonense and Santa Clara.

However, manager Luis Freire was pleased with his side's showing in both those matches and hopes that they can soon be rewarded for their good performances with points on the board.

Nacional have a dreadful record against Porto, last defeating the Dragoes away from home in the 2007-08 season.

The Alvinegros currently sit in 10th place on 10 points but could move as high as seventh if they were to secure a surprise victory on Sunday.

Porto Primeira Liga form: DWLWWW
Porto form (all competitions): WDWWWW

Nacional Primeira Liga form: LDDWLL
Nacional form (all competitions): DDWWLL

Team News

Fabio Vieira warms up for Porto on October 21, 2020 © Reuters

Porto's veteran defender Pepe returned to action on Wednesday only to get injured once again, so he will be absent this weekend. Centre-backs Chancel Mbemba and Malang Sarr are likely to start together as a result.

Zaidu Sanusi is a doubt for the match but if fit will be in contention to start at left-back.

Striker Moussa Marega missed out against Pacos de Ferreira in midweek but will likely return to the starting lineup on Sunday.

Fabio Vieira and Romario Baro might have an opportunity to start if Sergio Conceicao decides to ring the changes in midfield, with one eye on next Wednesday's Supertaca Candido de Oliveira final against Benfica.

Nacional duo Kalindi and Ruben Freitas are both doubts for Sunday but if fit will be in contention to start.

Striker Kenji Gorre scored against Santa Clara last time out and may get the nod over Joao Victor in attack.

Porto possible starting lineup:
Marchesin; Manafa, Mbemba, Sarr, Sanusi; Baro, Oliveira, Vieira; Corona, Marega, Nakajima

Nacional possible starting lineup:
Guimaraes; Freitas, Henrique, Kal, Vigario; Koziello, Micael, Alhassan; Gorre, Riascos, Camacho

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We say: Porto 3-0 Nacional

Luis Freire knows how difficult the task will be to compete with Porto on Sunday but will hope that a more cautious approach may give them a chance of snatching at least a point. However, the Dragoes are building form and even if they decide to rest a few key players before Wednesday's match with Benfica, they should be able to win comfortably.

Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 71.37%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 10.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.32%) and 3-0 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.43%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (3.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Porto in this match.