Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 21

Jan 1, 2022 at 12.30pm UK

Emirates Stadium

Arsenal
1 - 2
Man City

Saka (31')
Xhaka (55'), Magalhaes (57'), Saka (63'), Holding (68')
Magalhaes (59')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Mahrez (57' pen.), Rodri (90+3')
Rodri (90+4'), Silva (90+5')

Arsenal handed £20,000 fine for misconduct charge against Manchester City

Arsenal are handed a £20,000 fine by the FA after accepting their misconduct charge in their Premier League defeat to Manchester City on New Year's Day.

Jan 6, 10:26

Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola pictured on January 1, 2022

Pep Guardiola: 'Arsenal were the better team'

Pep Guardiola believes Arsenal were the better team even though his Manchester City side came away from the Emirates Stadium with a 2-1 Premier League win on Saturday.

Jan 1, 16:20

Aaron Ramsdale in action for Arsenal in January 2022

Aaron Ramsdale hits out at "inconsistency" in VAR calls

Arsenal goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale blasts the "inconsistency" in VAR after the Gunners heartbreakingly lose 2-1 to Manchester City on New Year's Day.

Jan 1, 15:31

Gabriel Magalhaes is sent off for Arsenal against Manchester City in January 2022

Arsenal hit unwanted red card milestone against Manchester City

Arsenal become the first team in Premier League history to receive 100 red cards following Gabriel Magalhaes's sending off against Manchester City.

Jan 1, 14:39

The Match

We said: Arsenal 1-2 Manchester City

Arsenal will be feeling good about themselves after a strong run of results, and we are expecting this to be a tight contest at the Emirates Stadium. Man City's record against the Gunners cannot be ignored, though, and we are backing Guardiola's side to pick up another three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 50.74%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Arsenal had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.49%) and 0-2 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.91%), while for an Arsenal win it was 1-0 (7.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Manchester City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Manchester City.

Result
Arsenal	Draw	Manchester City
24.2%	25.06%	50.74%

Both teams to score 50.84%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.38%

51.62%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.6%

73.41%

Arsenal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.83%

36.18%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.05%

72.96%

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.65%

20.35%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.25%

52.75%

Score Analysis

Arsenal 24.2%

Manchester City 50.74%

Draw 25.06%

Arsenal	Draw	Manchester City
1-0 @ 7.49% 2-1 @ 6.06% 2-0 @ 3.81% 3-1 @ 2.05% 3-2 @ 1.64% 3-0 @ 1.29% Other @ 1.87% Total : 24.2%	1-1 @ 11.91% 0-0 @ 7.36% 2-2 @ 4.82% Other @ 0.96% Total : 25.06%	0-1 @ 11.72% 1-2 @ 9.49% 0-2 @ 9.33% 1-3 @ 5.04% 0-3 @ 4.95% 2-3 @ 2.56% 1-4 @ 2% 0-4 @ 1.97% 2-4 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.66% Total : 50.74%