Primeira Liga | Gameweek 28

Apr 14, 2023 at 8.15pm UK

Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho

Famalicao
2 - 1
Guimaraes

Cadiz (10'), Moura (70')
Youssouf (45+2')
Riccieli (23')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Silva (64')
Silva (19'), Tounkara (25'), Safira (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Primeira Liga clash between Famalicao and Vitoria de Guimaraes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Famalicao

All competitions

Last Game: Pacos de Ferreira 1-3 Famalicao
Saturday, April 8 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Vitoria de Guimaraes

All competitions

Last Game: Boavista 2-1 Guimaraes
Friday, April 7 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

We said: Famalicao 2-1 Vitoria de Guimaraes

While Famalicao have hit their stride at the business end of the season, Guimaraes have suffered a drop-off in form, with their European quest now hanging in the balance. Given their contrasting form, we are backing the Vila Nova to pick up where they dropped off on Friday and come away with all three points once again. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 50.05%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 24.09%.

The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.6%) and 2-1 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.23%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (8.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Famalicao in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Famalicao.

Result
Famalicao	Draw	Vitoria de Guimaraes
50.05% ( -0.59)	25.86% ( 0.04)	24.09% ( 0.55)

Both teams to score 48.41% (

0.43)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.24% (

0.27)

54.75% (

-0.28)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.93% (

0.23)

76.07% (

-0.23)

Famalicao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.08% (

-0.14)

21.91% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.82% (

-0.21)

55.18% (

0.21)

Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.99% (

0.66)

38% (

-0.66)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.22% (

0.63)

74.77% (

-0.63)

Score Analysis

Famalicao 50.05%

Vitoria de Guimaraes 24.09%

Draw 25.85%

Famalicao	Draw	Vitoria de Guimaraes
1-0 @ 12.64% ( -0.19) 2-0 @ 9.6% ( -0.19) 2-1 @ 9.28% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.86% ( -0.12) 3-1 @ 4.7% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.27% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.84% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.78% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.08% Total : 50.05%	1-1 @ 12.23% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 8.33% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 4.49% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.8% Total : 25.85%	0-1 @ 8.06% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 5.92% ( 0.12) 0-2 @ 3.9% ( 0.1) 1-3 @ 1.91% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.61% Total : 24.09%