Primeira Liga | Gameweek 18

Jan 21, 2024 at 8.30pm UK

Estadio Dom Afonso Henriques

Guimaraes
3 - 0
Estrela Amadora

Santos (14'), Silva (79'), Silva (88')
Silva (24')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Omorwa (18')
Santos (71')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Vitoria de Guimaraes and Estrela Amadora, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Vitoria de Guimaraes

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Guimaraes 2-1 Arouca
Monday, January 15 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Estrela Amadora

All competitions

Last Game: Gil Vicente 1-1 Estrela Amadora
Sunday, January 14 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

We said: Vitoria de Guimaraes 2-1 Estrela Amadora

Vitoria de Guimaraes have been in tremendous form of late, and it is hard to bet against them getting the job done here. We are tipping the hosts to secure maximum points, albeit by only a narrow margin. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 64.55%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 14.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.25%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.97%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.

Result
Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Estrela Amadora
64.55% ( -0.05)	21% ( 0.04)	14.45% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 46.87% (

-0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.56% (

-0.12)

48.44% (

0.12)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.43% (

-0.11)

70.57% (

0.11)

Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.72% (

-0.05)

14.28% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.93% (

-0.1)

42.07% (

0.11)

Estrela Amadora Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.68% (

-0.05)

45.32% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.81% (

-0.04)

81.19% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Vitoria de Guimaraes 64.54%

Estrela Amadora 14.45%

Draw 21%

Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Estrela Amadora
1-0 @ 12.59% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 12.25% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.7% ( -0) 3-0 @ 7.95% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.29% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 3.87% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.06% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.49% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.51% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.21% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.19% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.41% Total : 64.54%	1-1 @ 9.97% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.47% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 3.84% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.72% Total : 21%	0-1 @ 5.12% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 3.94% ( 0) 0-2 @ 2.03% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.04% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.01% ( -0) Other @ 1.3% Total : 14.45%