MX23RW : Wednesday, June 12 09:47:05| >> :600:1096084:1096084:
[monks data]
Red Bull Salzburg
Champions League | Group Stage
Sep 29, 2021 at 8pm UK
Red Bull Arena
Lille

Salzburg
2 - 1
Lille

Adeyemi (35' pen., 53' pen.)
Adeyemi (54'), Capaldo (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Yilmaz (62')
Botman (30'), Xeka (45'), Yilmaz (51'), Fonte (66'), Bamba (89')

Preview: Red Bull Salzburg vs. Lille - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Red Bull Salzburg and Lille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Both sitting on one point after the opening matchday in Champions League Group G, Red Bull Salzburg and Lille prepare for battle in Wednesday's game at the Red Bull Arena.

The Austrian giants held Sevilla to a 1-1 stalemate two weeks ago, whereas Ligue 1 champions Lille played out a goalless draw with Wolfsburg.


Match preview

Red Bull Salzburg's Karim Adeyemi pictured on September 14, 2021© Reuters

As 1-1 draws go, one with four penalties - two of which were scored - and a red card certainly made Sevilla's clash with Salzburg one to watch for the neutrals, as the youthful Austrians held their Spanish counterparts to a creditable stalemate on matchday one.

After Karim Adeyemi failed to convert from 12 yards, Luka Sucic tucked his first penalty away in the 21st minute before missing another later in the first half, but Sevilla's Ivan Rakitic made no mistake from the spot during a frenetic opening 45 minutes.

Salzburg's remarkable winning run may have come to a grinding halt against Sevilla, but Matthias Jaissle's youthful crop have continued their spate of domestic dominance with a 2-0 league win over Wolfsberger AC at the weekend, as Noah Okafor and Jerome Onguene made the net ripple.

With 13 wins and a draw to boast from their 14 competitive fixtures this season, Salzburg are not in the Champions League just to make up the numbers, and they have scored 15 goals across their last four home wins - including an 8-0 cup thrashing of Kalsdorf.

Jaissle's side are seemingly running away with the domestic title and would love nothing more than to pip one of Sevilla, Wolfsburg or Lille to one of the top two spots in Group G, although they have failed to win any of their last five group stage games at home.

Lille coach Jocelyn Gourvennec gives instructions to his players on September 14, 2021© Reuters

Given the two sides' contrasting league fortunes ahead of matchweek one, many expected an under-performing Lille to be blown away by Bundesliga pace-setters Wolfsburg, but there were no goals to be had at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy.

Even with 17 shots and a man advantage for the final 30 minutes after John Brooks's sending off, Lille just could not find the breakthrough, but their results under Jocelyn Gourvennec appear to be steadily improving after a shaky start.

Les Dogues were hardly guaranteed all three points against a fired-up Strasbourg at the weekend, but Jonathan David's brace gave the champions a healthy 2-0 advantage before Ibrahima Sissoko made things interesting with 15 minutes remaining, but Lille nevertheless held on for a second 2-1 win on the bounce.

That victory also represented Lille's first away win of the season after four previous failures - although they are yet to keep a clean sheet away from home this season - so following that up with a first Champions League group-stage win since 2012 may certainly be a sign of better things to come.

Salzburg and Lille have never locked horns in European competition before, and the hosts have won four of their previous eight meetings with French sides, most recently downing Marseille 2-1 in an inconsequential Europa League semi-final second leg in the 2017-18 season.

Red Bull Salzburg Champions League form:
  • D

Red Bull Salzburg form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W

Lille Champions League form:
  • D

Lille form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • W



Team News

Renato Sanches in action for Lille on November 1, 2020© Reuters

In spite of their stellar form, Salzburg are not without their injury problems, as three centre-backs in Maximilian Wober, Oumar Solet and Kamil Piatkowski could all miss the visit of Lille.

Veteran midfielder Zlatko Junuzovic - one of only two over-30 outfield players in the Salzburg squad - is also struggling with a heel injury, while the afflicted pair of Sekou Koita and Albert Vallci are ineligible anyway.

Nineteen-year-old Adeyemi will somehow attempt to replicate his three penalty wins from the opening matchday, and Okafor's goal at the weekend has put him in with a chance of partnering Adeyemi in place of Benjamin Sesko.

Lille continue to cope without midfielder Renato Sanches - who is nearing a return to action after a knee injury - while Jonathan Bamba could reportedly overcome a thigh injury in time to feature.

However, Angel Gomes will hope to hold his spot on the left-hand side for now, while Timothy Weah may drop out for veteran Burak Yilmaz in the final third.

There should be no further surprises in the visitors' XI, with Yusuf Yazici most likely trying to make an impact from the bench once again.

Red Bull Salzburg possible starting lineup:
Kohn; Kristensen, Onguene, Bernardo, Ulmer; Sucic, Camara, Siewald; Aaronson; Adeyemi, Sesko

Lille possible starting lineup:
Grbic; Celik, Fonte, Botman, Reinildo; Ikone, Andre, Xeka, Gomes; David, Yilmaz


SM words green background

We say: Red Bull Salzburg 3-2 Lille

Gourvennec is yet to endear himself to the Lille faithful and will come under increasing pressure if his side fail to win here, but they at least appear to have improved on the goalscoring front.

However, Salzburg are equally impressive in the final third and could have easily come away with three points against Sevilla but for a lack of ruthlessness from 12 yards, and we expect a pulsating encounter to end with the hosts coming out on top.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or draw in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Draw:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Bull Salzburg win with a probability of 49.06%. A win for Lille had a probability of 29.4% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Red Bull Salzburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.02%) and 2-0 (5.89%). The likeliest Lille win was 1-2 (6.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Red Bull Salzburg in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Salzburg vs Lille

Red Bull Salzburg
62.2%
Draw
19.0%
Lille
18.7%
294
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Karim Adeyemi in action for Red Bull Salzburg in May 2021
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