Europa League

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Europa League | Group Stage

Nov 26, 2020 at 8pm UK

Stade Maurice Dufrasne

Standard Liege
2 - 1
Lech Poznan

Tapsoba (63'), Laifis (90+3')
Oulare (26'), Ange Balikwisha (37'), Raskin (45+3'), Boljevic (72')
Oulare (45+2')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Ishak (60')
Crnomarkovic (20'), Butko (43'), Kravets (86')
Crnomarkovic (74')

Preview: Standard Liege vs. Lech Poznan - prediction, team news, lineups

By Oliver Thomas, Senior Reporter | 24 November 2020

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Standard Liege and Lech Poznan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Standard Liege host Lech Poznan in the Europa League on Thursday night knowing that a defeat would knock them out of the competition.

Poznan, meanwhile, are looking to win back-to-back matches in Group D and close the gap between themselves and Benfica in second place.

Match preview

Lech Poznan players celebrate scoring against Standard Liege on November 5, 2020 © Reuters

Standard Liege's hopes of qualifying for the last 32 of the Europa League are hanging by a thread as they have lost all three of their Group D matches, including the 3-1 defeat away at Lech Poznan earlier this month.

Les Rouches have also struggled for form domestically having won only one of their last five league matches, most recently drawing 2-2 with Eupen.

Philippe Montanier's side will host Lech Poznan for the first time in their history and defeat against them would see Liege lose their fourth European match in a row for the first time since the 2013-14 season.

Liege need to beat Poznan on Thursday night if they are to have any chance of qualifying for the next round and move off the bottom of Group D.

Lech Poznan have given themselves a fighting chance of qualifying for the knockout stages after a 3-1 home victory over Thursday's opponents three weeks ago.

A brace from striker Mikael Ishak added to Michal Skoras's opener which helped secure Poznan's first win of their Europa League campaign.

Dariusz Zuraw's side travel to face the fourth different Belgian side in recent years, after previously losing away at Genk in 2018 before losing to Club Brugge in 2019 and beating Charleroi in October this year.

Lech Poznan's Jakub Moder has had 12 shots in the Europa League this campaign, the most shots without scoring of any player in this season's competition. However, the midfielder has found the net four times in the Polish first division.

Claiming three points on Thursday night would see Poznan win consecutive matches in a European competition for the first time since February 2011 in the Europa League.

Standard Liege Europa League form: LLL
Standard Liege form (all competitions): LLWLDD

Lech Poznan Europa League form: LLW
Lech Poznan form (all competitions): DLWWLD

Team News

Standard Liege's Zinho Vanheusden celebrates on November 29, 2018 © Reuters

Standard Liege defender Zinho Vanheusden is unavailable for selection after rupturing his cruciate ligament at the beginning of November. This will likely see Noe Dussenne partner Konstantinos Laifis at centre-back.

Winger William Balikwisha is also ruled out as he is suffering with a shoulder injury.

Lech Poznan boss Dariusz Zuraw is likely to name the same side that beat Liege 3-1 earlier this month.

Dani Ramirez, who has scored three goals in his last four matches, is set to play in an advanced midfield role in behind striker Mikael Ishak.

Standard Liege possible starting lineup:
Bodart; Fai, Laifis, Dussenne, Gavory; Bokadi; Raskin, Bastian; Lestienne, Oulare, Amallah

Lech Poznan possible starting lineup:
Bednarek; Czerwinski, Satka, Rogne, Puchacz; Skoras, Tiba, Moder, Marchwinski; Ramirez; Ishak

SM words green background

We say: Standard Liege 1-2 Lech Poznan

Standard Liege are likely to throw all that they have left at this match if they are to have any hope of progressing from Group D. However, Lech Poznan, who have scored 10 goals in their last four matches in all competitions, should have the attacking quality to overcome the Belgians.

Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Standard Liege win with a probability of 37.34%. A win for Lech Poznan had a probability of 36.36% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Standard Liege win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.24%) and 2-0 (6.36%). The likeliest Lech Poznan win was 0-1 (9.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Standard Liege would win this match.