World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Africa | Group Stage

Nov 21, 2023 at 1pm UK

Bingu National Stadium

Malawi
0 - 1
Tunisia

Idana (9'), Kumwembe (65'), Chaziya (77')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Msakni (88' pen.)
Sassi (58')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying - Africa clash between Malawi and Tunisia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Malawi

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Liberia 0-1 Malawi
Friday, November 17 at 4pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Senegal	3	1	5
2	Guinea	3	0	4
3	Malawi	3	0	4
4	Zimbabwe	3	-1	3

Tunisia

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Tunisia 4-0 Sao Tome
Friday, November 17 at 7pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Tunisia	0	0	0
2	Mali	0	0	0
3	South Africa	0	0	0
4	Namibia	0	0	0

We expect Malawi to hang back and try to hit their opponents on the counter, given who they are up against, and while they have been quite capable of containing opposing attacks, the Malawians have not faced a side with as much quality as Tunisia in quite some time. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malawi win with a probability of 43.02%. A draw had a probability of 28.9% and a win for Tunisia had a probability of 28.11%.

The most likely scoreline for a Malawi win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.66%) and 2-1 (8.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.18%), while for a Tunisia win it was 0-1 (10.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Tunisia in this match.

Result
Malawi	Draw	Tunisia
43.02% ( -0.18)	28.86% ( 0.09)	28.11% ( 0.09)

Both teams to score 43.33% (

-0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

37.2% (

-0.24)

62.79% (

0.24)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.68% (

-0.18)

82.32% (

0.17)

Malawi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.01% (

-0.22)

28.98% (

0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.11% (

-0.27)

64.88% (

0.26)

Tunisia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.01% (

-0.06)

38.98% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.29% (

-0.05)

75.7% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Malawi 43.02%

Tunisia 28.11%

Draw 28.85%

Malawi	Draw	Tunisia
1-0 @ 13.99% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 8.66% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.16% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 3.58% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 3.37% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 1.59% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.11% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.04% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.52% Total : 43.02%	1-1 @ 13.18% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 11.29% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 3.85% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.54% Total : 28.85%	0-1 @ 10.64% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 6.21% ( -0) 0-2 @ 5.02% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 1.95% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.58% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.51% Total : 28.11%