Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 60.74%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Granada had a probability of 16.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.83%) and 2-1 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.73%), while for a Granada win it was 0-1 (5.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.
Result | ||
Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Granada |
60.74% ( 0.38) | 22.68% ( -0.15) | 16.58% ( -0.23) |
Both teams to score 46.6% ( -0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.61% ( 0.21) | 51.39% ( -0.21) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.79% ( 0.18) | 73.21% ( -0.18) |
Rayo Vallecano Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.49% ( 0.21) | 16.51% ( -0.2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.76% ( 0.37) | 46.24% ( -0.36) |
Granada Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
55.81% ( -0.17) | 44.19% ( 0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.72% ( -0.14) | 80.28% ( 0.14) |
Score Analysis |
Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Granada |
1-0 @ 13.14% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 11.83% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 9.67% ( 0) 3-0 @ 7.11% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 5.8% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 3.2% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 2.61% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.37% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.07% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 0.94% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.84% Total : 60.73% | 1-1 @ 10.73% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 7.29% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 3.95% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.71% Total : 22.68% | 0-1 @ 5.96% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 2.43% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.54% Total : 16.58% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 37 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 87 | 26 | 61 | 94 |
2 | Barcelona | 37 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 77 | 43 | 34 | 82 |
3 | GironaGirona | 37 | 24 | 6 | 7 | 78 | 46 | 32 | 78 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 4 | 10 | 68 | 43 | 25 | 73 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 18 | 11 | 8 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 65 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 51 | 37 | 14 | 60 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 56 |
8 | Villarreal | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 64 | 64 | 0 | 52 |
9 | Valencia | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 48 |
10 | AlavesAlaves | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 45 |
11 | Osasuna | 37 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 44 |
12 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 43 |
13 | Sevilla | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 41 |
14 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 40 |
15 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 37 | 10 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 39 |
16 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 38 |
17 | Mallorca | 37 | 7 | 16 | 14 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 37 |
R | CadizCadiz | 37 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 33 |
R | Granada | 37 | 4 | 9 | 24 | 38 | 72 | -34 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 37 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 37 | 74 | -37 | 18 |
> La Liga Full Table |