Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 25

Mar 16, 2022 at 5.30pm UK

Coface Arena

Mainz 05
0 - 1
Dortmund

Bell (43'), Stach (49'), Lucoqui (90+2')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Witsel (87')
Wolf (43'), Dahoud (44'), Pongracic (45+3'), Witsel (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

Last Six:

Last Game: Mainz 05 2-2 Frankfurt
Saturday, May 14 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Next Game: Erzgebirge Aue vs. Mainz 05
Friday, July 29 at 1am in DFB-Pokal

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
7	FC Koln	34	3	52
8	Mainz 05	34	5	46
9	Hoffenheim	34	-2	46

Borussia Dortmund

Last Six:

Last Game: Dortmund 2-1 Hertha Berlin
Saturday, May 14 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Next Game: 1860 Munich vs. Dortmund
Friday, July 29 at 1am in DFB-Pokal

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Bayern Munich	34	60	77
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	33	69
3	Bayer Leverkusen	34	33	64

We said: Mainz 05 1-2 Borussia Dortmund

After such a lengthy break, Mainz 05 will be looking to get things back on track for the second half of the season, but they face a stern test against a team fighting for the title. Borussia Dortmund are in good form within the league, and as they continue to push Bayern Munich, the squad should be able to secure a victory here in what could be a close contest. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 46.95%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 29.06% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.79%) and 0-2 (7.37%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
29.06%	23.99%	46.95%

Both teams to score 58.52%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.54%

43.46%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.14%

65.85%

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.96%

28.04%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.3%

63.69%

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.32%

18.67%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.99%

50.01%

Score Analysis

Mainz 05 29.06%

Borussia Dortmund 46.95%

Draw 23.98%

Mainz 05	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 7.1% 1-0 @ 6.66% 2-0 @ 4.23% 3-1 @ 3.01% 3-2 @ 2.53% 3-0 @ 1.79% 4-1 @ 0.96% Other @ 2.77% Total : 29.06%	1-1 @ 11.17% 2-2 @ 5.96% 0-0 @ 5.24% 3-3 @ 1.41% Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.98%	1-2 @ 9.37% 0-1 @ 8.79% 0-2 @ 7.37% 1-3 @ 5.24% 0-3 @ 4.12% 2-3 @ 3.33% 1-4 @ 2.2% 0-4 @ 1.73% 2-4 @ 1.4% Other @ 3.39% Total : 46.95%