Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

May 25, 2022 at 1.30am UK

Estadio George Capwell

Emelec
7 - 0
Independiente Petrolero

Cabeza (16', 35'), Rodriguez (38', 77'), Cevallos (45+1'), Rojas (54'), Quiroga (75')
Carabali (45+3'), Arroyo (49'), Cabeza (67')

FT(HT: 4-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Emelec and Independiente Petrolero, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Emelec

Last Game: Emelec 7-0 Independiente Petrolero
Wednesday, May 25 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores

Next Game: Emelec vs. Atletico Mineiro
Tuesday, June 28 at 11.15pm in Copa Libertadores

Independiente Petrolero

Last Game: Emelec 7-0 Independiente Petrolero
Wednesday, May 25 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores

We said: Emelec 2-0 Independiente Petrolero

If there was a team that Emelec would have wanted to play in their final match of the group stage, the Bolivians would likely be their first choice. We anticipate El Bombillo will be able to end their woes at home against a side with nothing to play for and a defence who have been far too easy to penetrate in this competition. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Emelec win with a probability of 48.36%. A win for Independiente Petrolero had a probability of 28.71% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Emelec win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.66%) and 2-0 (6.94%). The likeliest Independiente Petrolero win was 1-2 (6.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.34%). The actual scoreline of 7-0 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Emelec would win this match.

Result
Emelec	Draw	Independiente Petrolero
48.36% ( -0.04)	22.93% ( -0)	28.71% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 62.03% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.27% (

0.05)

38.73% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.96% (

0.05)

61.04% (

-0.04)

Emelec Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.68% (

16.32% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.1%

45.9% (

Independiente Petrolero Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.13% (

0.06)

25.88% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.14% (

0.08)

60.86% (

-0.07)

Score Analysis

Emelec 48.36%

Independiente Petrolero 28.72%

Draw 22.92%

Emelec	Draw	Independiente Petrolero
2-1 @ 9.38% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.66% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.94% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.67% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.19% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.83% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.57% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.9% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.74% ( 0) 5-1 @ 0.93% Other @ 3.55% Total : 48.36%	1-1 @ 10.34% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.34% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.22% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.73% ( 0) Other @ 0.29% Total : 22.92%	1-2 @ 6.99% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.71% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.86% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.15% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.86% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.74% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.07% ( 0) 2-4 @ 0.97% ( 0) Other @ 2.38% Total : 28.72%