Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

Jun 28, 2023 at 1am UK

Estadio Manuel Ferreira

Olimpia
4 - 1
Melgar

Silva (2' pen.), Paiva (9', 23'), Cardozo (31')

FT(HT: 4-0)

Martinez (54')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Olimpia and Melgar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Olimpia

Last Game: Olimpia 3-0 Atletico Nacional
Friday, June 9 at 1am in Copa Libertadores

Melgar

Last Game: Melgar 5-0 Patronato
Wednesday, June 7 at 1am in Copa Libertadores

Group leaders Olimpia have won both of their home matches in the group stage without conceding, and we think that they will claim another victory when they face a Melgar side who have lost both of their two away group games. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Olimpia win with a probability of 50.06%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Melgar had a probability of 23.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Olimpia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.83%) and 2-1 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.34%), while for a Melgar win it was 0-1 (8.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Olimpia would win this match.

Result
Olimpia	Draw	Melgar
50.06% ( -0.43)	26.25% ( 0.18)	23.69% ( 0.26)

Both teams to score 46.92% (

-0.22)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.5% (

-0.43)

56.5% (

0.43)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.5% (

-0.35)

77.49% (

0.34)

Olimpia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.36% (

-0.37)

22.64% (

0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.72% (

-0.56)

56.27% (

0.56)

Melgar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.65% (

39.35% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.95% (

76.05% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Olimpia 50.05%

Melgar 23.69%

Draw 26.24%

Olimpia	Draw	Melgar
1-0 @ 13.23% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 9.83% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 9.17% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 4.87% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 4.54% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 2.12% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 1.81% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.69% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.82% Total : 50.05%	1-1 @ 12.34% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 8.91% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 4.28% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.72% Total : 26.24%	0-1 @ 8.31% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 5.76% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 3.88% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 1.79% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.43% Total : 23.69%