International Friendly

Sep 27, 2022 at 12.55pm UK

Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Ecuador
0 - 0
Japan

Castillo (6'), Mendez (78')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's International Friendlies clash between Ecuador and Japan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ecuador

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Saudi Arabia 0-0 Ecuador
Friday, September 23 at 7pm in International Friendlies

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	4	8	10
2	Peru	4	-2	7
3	Colombia	4	-1	4
4	Ecuador	4	-1	3
5	Venezuela	4	-4	2

Japan

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Japan 2-0 USA
Friday, September 23 at 1.25pm in International Friendlies

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Uruguay	3	5	7
2	Chile	3	4	6
3	Japan	3	-4	2
4	Ecuador	3	-5	1

Ecuador have drawn three of their last five games, and with both sides looking to extend their respective unbeaten runs ahead of the World Cup, we think that the two nations will be content with a draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 48.16%. A win for Japan had a probability of 26.42% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (8.68%). The likeliest Japan win was 0-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Ecuador	Draw	Japan
48.16% ( -0.05)	25.41% ( 0.08)	26.42% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 51.85% (

-0.27)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.7% (

-0.35)

51.3% (

0.35)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.87% (

-0.31)

73.13% (

0.3)

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.69% (

-0.16)

21.31% (

0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.74% (

-0.25)

54.26% (

0.25)

Japan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.9% (

-0.21)

34.1% (

0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.21% (

-0.23)

70.79% (

0.22)

Score Analysis

Ecuador 48.16%

Japan 26.42%

Draw 25.41%

Ecuador	Draw	Japan
1-0 @ 11.23% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 9.34% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 8.68% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 4.81% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 4.48% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.59% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.86% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.73% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.43% Total : 48.16%	1-1 @ 12.08% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 7.27% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 5.03% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.41%	0-1 @ 7.82% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 6.5% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 4.21% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.8% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.51% ( -0) Other @ 2.25% Total : 26.42%