Friendlies 1

Mar 23, 2024 at 3pm UK

Bingu National Stadium

Malawi
0 - 4
Kenya

Sanudi (39')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Olunga (1', 5' pen.), Masika (83'), Avire (90+3')
Erambo (27'), Olunga (68'), Omorwa (70')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the International Friendlies Friendlies 1 clash between Malawi and Kenya.

Form, Standings, Stats

Malawi

All competitions

Last Game: Malawi 0-1 Tunisia
Tuesday, November 21 at 1pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Senegal	3	1	5
2	Guinea	3	0	4
3	Malawi	3	0	4
4	Zimbabwe	3	-1	3

Kenya

All competitions

Last Game: Seychelles 0-5 Kenya
Monday, November 20 at 7pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Algeria	3	6	9
2	Senegal	3	4	6
3	Kenya	3	-4	3
4	Tanzania	3	-6	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kenya win with a probability of 43.87%. A win for Malawi had a probability of 29.87% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Kenya win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.93%) and 0-2 (7.89%). The likeliest Malawi win was 1-0 (8.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kenya would win this match.

Result
Malawi	Draw	Kenya
29.87% ( -0.01)	26.26% ( -0.04)	43.87% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 51.55% (

0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.21% (

0.14)

52.79% (

-0.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.59% (

0.12)

74.42% (

-0.12)

Malawi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.77% (

0.06)

32.24% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.27% (

0.07)

68.73% (

-0.07)

Kenya Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.07% (

0.08)

23.93% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.86% (

0.12)

58.14% (

-0.12)

Score Analysis

Malawi 29.87%

Kenya 43.87%

Draw 26.25%

Malawi	Draw	Kenya
1-0 @ 8.73% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 7.07% ( 0) 2-0 @ 4.94% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 2.67% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.87% ( -0) Other @ 2.69% Total : 29.87%	1-1 @ 12.48% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.71% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.06% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.25%	0-1 @ 11.03% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 8.93% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 7.89% ( -0) 1-3 @ 4.26% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 3.76% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.41% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.52% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.35% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.73% Total : 43.87%