League One

League One | Gameweek 36

Mar 2, 2024 at 3pm UK

Brunton Park

Carlisle
1 - 3
Reading

Mellish (71')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Smith (17'), Knibbs (36', 57')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Carlisle United and Reading, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions

Last Game: Burton Albion 0-1 Carlisle
Tuesday, February 27 at 7.45pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Reading

All competitions

Last Game: Reading 2-3 Shrewsbury
Saturday, February 24 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Carlisle United 1-2 Reading

Although Carlisle claimed all three points in Tuesday's away clash with Burton, they have lost each of their last four home matches, and after falling to a 5-1 defeat to Reading in the reverse fixture, we think that the Cumbrians will come up short in Saturday's home outing. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reading win with a probability of 42.8%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 31.67% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Reading win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.95%) and 0-2 (7.24%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Reading would win this match.

Result
Carlisle United	Draw	Reading
31.67% ( 0.07)	25.52% ( 0.03)	42.8% ( -0.09)

Both teams to score 54.75% (

-0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.97% (

-0.09)

49.03% (

0.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.89% (

-0.08)

71.11% (

0.08)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.93% (

29.07%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.02% (

64.98%

Reading Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.19% (

-0.08)

22.81% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.48% (

-0.12)

56.51% (

0.13)

Score Analysis

Carlisle United 31.67%

Reading 42.8%

Draw 25.52%

Carlisle United	Draw	Reading
1-0 @ 8.19% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 7.48% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.06% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.08% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.28% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.08% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 0.95% ( 0) Other @ 2.55% Total : 31.67%	1-1 @ 12.1% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.63% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.53% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.12% ( -0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.52%	0-1 @ 9.8% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.95% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 7.24% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 4.41% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 3.57% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.72% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.63% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.32% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.16% Total : 42.8%