Eredivisie | Gameweek 24

Mar 3, 2024 at 11.15am UK

Johan Cruijff Arena

Ajax
2 - 0
Utrecht

Brobbey (39'), Taylor (77')
Mannsverk (65')
Rensch (83')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Azarkan (36'), Flamingo (42')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between Ajax and FC Utrecht, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ajax

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: AZ 2-0 Ajax
Sunday, February 25 at 3.45pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

FC Utrecht

All competitions

Last Game: Utrecht 1-0 Heracles
Friday, February 23 at 7pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

This has traditionally been viewed as a likely home win given the gulf in class between the sides, yet a potential thriller could play out on this occasion. No-one would be surprised if Utrecht ran out winners in Amsterdam, but we are going to give the benefit of the doubt to Ajax in a high-scoring game. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 59.31%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 20.23%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.36%) and 1-0 (7.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.19%), while for a FC Utrecht win it was 1-2 (5.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Ajax	Draw	FC Utrecht
59.31% ( -1.19)	20.46% ( 0.48)	20.23% ( 0.72)

Both teams to score 60.81% (

-0.49)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.1% (

-1.19)

35.9% (

1.19)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.01% (

-1.32)

57.99% (

1.32)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.12% (

-0.69)

11.88% (

0.69)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.82% (

-1.48)

37.18% (

1.48)

FC Utrecht Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69% (

-0.02)

31% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.7% (

-0.02)

67.3% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Ajax 59.31%

FC Utrecht 20.23%

Draw 20.46%

Ajax	Draw	FC Utrecht
2-1 @ 9.79% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 8.36% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 7.84% ( 0.25) 3-1 @ 6.95% ( -0.16) 3-0 @ 5.93% ( -0.14) 3-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.1) 4-1 @ 3.7% ( -0.19) 4-0 @ 3.16% ( -0.16) 4-2 @ 2.17% ( -0.11) 5-1 @ 1.58% ( -0.13) 5-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.11) 5-2 @ 0.92% ( -0.08) Other @ 3.49% Total : 59.31%	1-1 @ 9.19% ( 0.29) 2-2 @ 5.73% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 3.68% ( 0.22) 3-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.28% Total : 20.46%	1-2 @ 5.38% ( 0.17) 0-1 @ 4.31% ( 0.25) 0-2 @ 2.53% ( 0.15) 2-3 @ 2.24% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.1% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.69% Total : 20.23%