Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 12

Nov 12, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stade Bollaert-Delelis

Lens
1 - 0
Marseille

Gradit (90')
Gradit (44'), Abdul Samed (76')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Lodi (37'), Oliveira (45+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Lens and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lens

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: PSV 1-0 Lens
Wednesday, November 8 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Marseille

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: AEK Athens 0-2 Marseille
Thursday, November 9 at 8pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Both sides have shown pragmatic approaches to get results in recent weeks, as defensive solidity has been the backbone of Haise's success at Lens. It will be a tough place to come to end Marseille's winless away run, and that is set to continue, but the spoils may well be shared here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 46.91%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 27.88% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.31%) and 2-0 (8.17%). The likeliest Marseille win was 0-1 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lens in this match.

Result
Lens	Draw	Marseille
46.91% ( -0.04)	25.21% ( -0.1)	27.88% ( 0.13)

Both teams to score 53.61% (

0.41)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.47% (

0.49)

49.53% (

-0.49)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.44% (

0.44)

71.56% (

-0.44)

Lens Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.87% (

0.19)

21.13% (

-0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.02% (

0.29)

53.98% (

-0.29)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.98% (

0.36)

32.02% (

-0.36)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.52% (

0.41)

68.48% (

-0.41)

Score Analysis

Lens 46.91%

Marseille 27.88%

Draw 25.2%

Lens	Draw	Marseille
1-0 @ 10.51% ( -0.15) 2-1 @ 9.31% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.17% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 4.82% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 4.24% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.75% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.87% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.65% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.07% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.52% Total : 46.91%	1-1 @ 11.97% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 6.77% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 5.3% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.2%	0-1 @ 7.71% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 6.82% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 4.39% 1-3 @ 2.59% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.01% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 1.67% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.7% Total : 27.88%