Primeira Liga | Gameweek 29

Apr 22, 2023 at 3.30pm UK

Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho

Famalicao
3 - 2
Maritimo

Cadiz (64'), Rodrigues (69' pen.), Pablo (90+8')
Otavio (27'), Rodrigues (90+8'), Penetra (90+10')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Riascos (18'), Vidigal (38')
Afonso (45'), Carne (62'), Costa (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Famalicao and Maritimo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Famalicao

All competitions

Last Game: Famalicao 2-1 Guimaraes
Friday, April 14 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Maritimo

All competitions

Last Game: Maritimo 3-1 Pacos de Ferreira
Saturday, April 15 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

We said: Famalicao 2-1 Maritimo

Following their performances at the weekend, Maritimo will head into the weekend with renewed belief as they look to salvage their season. However, Famalicao's campaign has taken a turn for the better in recent weeks and we are backing them to claim all three points and keep their race for a place in Europe alive. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 56.06%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Maritimo had a probability of 20.33%.

The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.33%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.22%), while for a Maritimo win it was 0-1 (6.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.

Result
Famalicao	Draw	Maritimo
56.06% ( 0.13)	23.61% ( -0.06)	20.33% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 50.36% (

0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.2% (

0.17)

49.8% (

-0.17)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.2% (

0.16)

71.8% (

-0.16)

Famalicao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.41% (

0.11)

17.59% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.84% (

0.19)

48.16% (

-0.19)

Maritimo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.11% (

0.03)

38.89% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.38% (

0.03)

75.62% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

Famalicao 56.05%

Maritimo 20.33%

Draw 23.6%

Famalicao	Draw	Maritimo
1-0 @ 11.88% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 10.33% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 5.98% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 5.65% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.67% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.6% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.46% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.16% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 0.9% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.66% Total : 56.05%	1-1 @ 11.22% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.84% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 4.61% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.93% Total : 23.6%	0-1 @ 6.46% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 5.3% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 3.05% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.67% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.45% ( 0) 0-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.44% Total : 20.33%