Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 27

Mar 19, 2023 at 2pm UK

Stadio Artemio Franchi

Fiorentina
1 - 0
Lecce

Gallo (27' og.)
Julio (63')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Blin (25'), Maleh (72'), Umtiti (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Fiorentina and Lecce, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Fiorentina

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Sivasspor 1-4 Fiorentina
Thursday, March 16 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Lecce

All competitions

Last Game: Lecce 0-2 Torino
Sunday, March 12 at 11.30am in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Recent trends suggest there should be only one winner on Sunday, as Fiorentina are flying high and Lecce are at a low. While it may not be quite so straightforward given the Viola's European exertions, their forwards are full of confidence now - a total contrast with those of the visitors. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 67.19%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 13.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.6%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.3%), while for a Lecce win it was 0-1 (4.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.

Result
Fiorentina	Draw	Lecce
67.19% ( 0.68)	19.55% ( -0.34)	13.25% ( -0.35)

Both teams to score 48.3% (

0.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.18% (

0.69)

44.81% (

-0.7)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.82% (

0.66)

67.17% (

-0.67)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.62% (

0.4)

12.38% (

-0.4)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61.76% (

0.83)

38.24% (

-0.83)

Lecce Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.12% (

-0.1)

44.87% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.17% (

-0.08)

80.83% (

0.07)

Score Analysis

Fiorentina 67.19%

Lecce 13.25%

Draw 19.55%

Fiorentina	Draw	Lecce
2-0 @ 12.12% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 11.6% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 9.71% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 8.44% ( 0.14) 3-1 @ 6.77% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 4.41% ( 0.14) 4-1 @ 3.53% ( 0.1) 3-2 @ 2.71% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 1.84% ( 0.08) 5-1 @ 1.48% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.42% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.16% Total : 67.19%	1-1 @ 9.3% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 5.55% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 3.89% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.81% Total : 19.55%	0-1 @ 4.45% ( -0.15) 1-2 @ 3.73% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 1.78% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.26% Total : 13.25%