World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Africa | Third Round | 1st Leg

Mar 25, 2022 at 5pm UK

Mali
0 - 1
Tunisia

(Tunisia win 1-0 on aggregate)

Kouyate (90+2')
Sissako (40')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Sissako (36' og.)
Jaziri (49'), Ghandri (55')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - Africa clash between Mali and Tunisia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mali

Last Six:

Last Game: Mali 4-0 Congo
Saturday, June 4 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Next Game: South Sudan vs. Mali
Thursday, June 9 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	3	7
2	Gambia	3	2	7
3	Tunisia	3	2	3
4	Mauritania	3	-7	0

Tunisia

Last Six:

Last Game: Botswana 0-0 Tunisia
Sunday, June 5 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Next Game: Tunisia vs. Libya
Sunday, September 18 at 11pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	3	7
2	Gambia	3	2	7
3	Tunisia	3	2	3
4	Mauritania	3	-7	0

Tunisia have struggled for consistency in recent outings, losing four of their last six games in all competitions. They face the stern test of facing a defensively solid Mali side who have conceded just once in their last 11 competitive games. With the support of the home crowd, we predict Mali will prove a hard nut to crack for the Carthage Eagles and come out with a narrow victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 55.08%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Tunisia had a probability of 20.83%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.31%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.44%), while for a Tunisia win it was 0-1 (6.77%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.

Result
Mali	Draw	Tunisia
55.08%	24.09%	20.83%

Both teams to score 49.64%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.87%

51.13%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.02%

72.98%

Mali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.55%

18.45%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.37%

49.63%

Tunisia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.86%

39.14%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.15%

75.85%

Score Analysis

Mali 55.08%

Tunisia 20.83%

Draw 24.08%

Mali	Draw	Tunisia
1-0 @ 12.2% 2-0 @ 10.31% 2-1 @ 9.68% 3-0 @ 5.81% 3-1 @ 5.45% 3-2 @ 2.56% 4-0 @ 2.46% 4-1 @ 2.3% 4-2 @ 1.08% Other @ 3.23% Total : 55.08%	1-1 @ 11.44% 0-0 @ 7.22% 2-2 @ 4.54% Other @ 0.88% Total : 24.08%	0-1 @ 6.77% 1-2 @ 5.37% 0-2 @ 3.18% 1-3 @ 1.68% 2-3 @ 1.42% 0-3 @ 0.99% Other @ 1.42% Total : 20.83%