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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 55.75%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 24.41% and a draw had a probability of 19.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.82%) and 2-0 (6.03%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 1-2 (5.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.81%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
Result | ||
Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Augsburg |
55.75% ( -1.29) | 19.84% ( 0.07) | 24.41% ( 1.22) |
Both teams to score 69.46% ( 1.33) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
72.67% ( 1.06) | 27.33% ( -1.06) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
52.09% ( 1.32) | 47.91% ( -1.33) |
Borussia Dortmund Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.88% ( 0.01) | 10.12% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
66.69% ( 0.03) | 33.31% ( -0.04) |
Augsburg Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.29% ( 1.46) | 22.71% ( -1.47) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.63% ( 2.13) | 56.37% ( -2.13) |
Score Analysis |
Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Augsburg |
2-1 @ 8.94% ( -0.18) 3-1 @ 6.82% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 6.03% ( -0.39) 1-0 @ 5.27% ( -0.35) 3-2 @ 5.06% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 4.6% ( -0.3) 4-1 @ 3.91% ( -0.07) 4-2 @ 2.9% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 2.64% ( -0.17) 5-1 @ 1.79% ( -0.03) 4-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.09) 5-2 @ 1.33% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 1.21% ( -0.08) Other @ 3.84% Total : 55.75% | 1-1 @ 7.81% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 6.63% ( 0.15) 3-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 2.3% ( -0.15) Other @ 0.61% Total : 19.84% | 1-2 @ 5.79% ( 0.13) 0-1 @ 3.41% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 3.27% ( 0.21) 1-3 @ 2.86% ( 0.18) 0-2 @ 2.53% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.08) 2-4 @ 1.21% ( 0.13) 1-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.11) 3-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.1) Other @ 2.12% Total : 24.41% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 33 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 87 | 23 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Bayern MunichBayern | 33 | 23 | 3 | 7 | 92 | 41 | 51 | 72 |
3 | Stuttgart | 33 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 74 | 39 | 35 | 70 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 75 | 37 | 38 | 64 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 64 | 43 | 21 | 60 |
6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 33 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 49 | 48 | 1 | 46 |
7 | Hoffenheim | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 62 | 64 | -2 | 43 |
8 | Freiburg | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 42 |
9 | Heidenheim | 33 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 39 |
10 | Augsburg | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 39 |
11 | Werder Bremen | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 44 | 53 | -9 | 39 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 37 |
13 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 56 | 63 | -7 | 34 |
14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 33 | 7 | 12 | 14 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 33 |
15 | Mainz 05Mainz | 33 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 36 | 50 | -14 | 32 |
16 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 33 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 31 | 57 | -26 | 30 |
17 | FC Koln | 33 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 27 |
R | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 33 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 30 | 82 | -52 | 17 |
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