Copa del Rey | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg

Mar 1, 2023 at 8pm UK

Estadio El Sadar

Osasuna
1 - 0
Athletic Bilbao

(Osasuna win 2-1 on aggregate)

Ezzalzouli (47')
Budimir (52'), Gomez (54'), Brasanac (90+1')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Berenguer (40'), Vesga (43'), Martinez (64')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa del Rey clash between Osasuna and Athletic Bilbao, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Osasuna

All competitions

Copa del Rey

Last Game: Sevilla 2-3 Osasuna
Sunday, February 26 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions

Copa del Rey

Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 2-3 Girona
Sunday, February 26 at 1pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Osasuna 2-1 Athletic Bilbao

Osasuna clung to a goalless draw when these sides met in Bilbao six weeks ago - registering just three shots all match - but go into the semi-final in better form on the pitch and a far emptier treatment room off it. Athletic are one of the most aggressive teams off the ball in La Liga but may struggle to reproduce their trademark intensity with so many absences, giving Osasuna the edge in the first leg of what promises to be an enthralling tie. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 38.56%. A win for Osasuna had a probability of 35.04% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.38%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Osasuna win was 1-0 (9.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Osasuna would win this match.

Result
Osasuna	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
35.04% ( -0)	26.4% ( -0.01)	38.56% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 52.77% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.02% (

0.01)

51.98% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.28% (

0.01)

73.72% (

-0.01)

Osasuna Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.62% (

28.37% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.88% (

64.11% (

-0.01)

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.68% (

0.01)

26.32% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.54% (

0.01)

61.45% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Osasuna 35.04%

Athletic Bilbao 38.56%

Draw 26.39%

Osasuna	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
1-0 @ 9.41% ( -0) 2-1 @ 7.91% 2-0 @ 5.93% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.32% 3-0 @ 2.49% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.22% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.72% Total : 35.04%	1-1 @ 12.55% 0-0 @ 7.47% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.28% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.99% Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.39%	0-1 @ 9.97% ( -0) 1-2 @ 8.38% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.65% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.73% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.96% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.35% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.24% 0-4 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 2.29% Total : 38.56%