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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 65.51%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Cambridge United had a probability of 14.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.21%), while for a Cambridge United win it was 0-1 (4.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Cambridge United |
65.51% ( -0.58) | 19.53% ( 0.06) | 14.96% ( 0.52) |
Both teams to score 52.98% ( 1.16) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.04% ( 0.85) | 40.96% ( -0.84) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.64% ( 0.86) | 63.35% ( -0.86) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.29% ( 0.09) | 11.71% ( -0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.17% ( 0.2) | 36.83% ( -0.19) |
Cambridge United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60% ( 1.25) | 40% ( -1.25) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.35% ( 1.13) | 76.65% ( -1.12) |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Cambridge United |
2-0 @ 10.77% ( -0.34) 1-0 @ 10.04% ( -0.36) 2-1 @ 9.87% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 7.7% ( -0.22) 3-1 @ 7.06% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 4.13% ( -0.1) 4-1 @ 3.78% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 3.23% ( 0.13) 5-0 @ 1.77% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.73% ( 0.08) 5-1 @ 1.62% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.79% Total : 65.5% | 1-1 @ 9.21% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.68% ( -0.18) 2-2 @ 4.52% ( 0.16) 3-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.13% Total : 19.53% | 0-1 @ 4.29% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 4.22% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 1.97% ( 0.06) 2-3 @ 1.38% ( 0.1) 1-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.08) Other @ 1.81% Total : 14.96% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Portsmouth | 46 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 78 | 41 | 37 | 97 |
P | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 78 | 37 | 41 | 92 |
3 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 86 | 51 | 35 | 87 |
4 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 89 | 61 | 28 | 84 |
5 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 79 | 56 | 23 | 77 |
6 | Barnsley | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 82 | 64 | 18 | 76 |
7 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 65 | 40 | 25 | 74 |
8 | Blackpool | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 73 |
9 | Stevenage | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 57 | 46 | 11 | 71 |
10 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 60 | 55 | 5 | 65 |
11 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 65 |
12 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 46 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 63 | 56 | 7 | 62 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 61 |
14 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 57 | 66 | -9 | 60 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 57 |
16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 11 | 20 | 15 | 64 | 65 | -1 | 53 |
17 | Reading | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 68 | 70 | -2 | 53 |
18 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 48 |
19 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 67 | -32 | 48 |
20 | Burton Albion | 46 | 12 | 10 | 24 | 39 | 67 | -28 | 46 |
R | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 12 | 8 | 26 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 44 |
R | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 49 | 72 | -23 | 43 |
R | Port Vale | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 41 |
R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 41 | 81 | -40 | 30 |
> League One Full Table |