League One

League One | Gameweek 21

Dec 9, 2023 at 3pm UK

St James Park

Exeter
0 - 1
Port Vale

Aimson (72'), Scott (84')
Aimson (90+1')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Arblaster (29')
Grant (54'), Debrah (85')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Exeter City and Port Vale, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Exeter City

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Exeter 0-0 Shrewsbury
Tuesday, November 28 at 7.45pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Port Vale

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Bolton 2-0 Port Vale
Tuesday, December 5 at 7.45pm in EFL Trophy

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Exeter City 1-1 Port Vale

Both teams will be desperate to claim all three points following a poor run of results, but we think that a lack of confidence in the two squads could result in a cagey affair finishing honours even. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 37.31%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 36.96% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 0-1 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.13%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 1-0 (8.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Port Vale in this match.

Result
Exeter City	Draw	Port Vale
36.96% ( -0.05)	25.72% ( 0.01)	37.31% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 55.21% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.07% (

-0.07)

48.93% (

0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.98% (

-0.06)

71.02% (

0.06)

Exeter City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.2% (

-0.06)

25.79% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.25% (

-0.08)

60.74% (

0.08)

Port Vale Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.4% (

-0.01)

25.6% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.52% (

-0.01)

60.48% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Exeter City 36.96%

Port Vale 37.31%

Draw 25.72%

Exeter City	Draw	Port Vale
1-0 @ 8.95% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.26% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.06% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.73% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.74% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.54% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.26% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 2.49% Total : 36.96%	1-1 @ 12.19% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.6% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.63% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.16% ( -0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.72%	0-1 @ 9% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.31% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.13% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.77% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.78% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.56% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.29% 0-4 @ 0.95% ( 0) Other @ 2.53% Total : 37.31%