Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 49.06%. A win for SC Farense had a probability of 27.41% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.74%) and 2-0 (7.63%). The likeliest SC Farense win was 1-2 (6.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Arouca in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Arouca.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | SC Farense |
49.06% ( 0.21) | 23.53% ( -0.05) | 27.41% ( -0.16) |
Both teams to score 58.85% ( 0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.53% ( 0.1) | 42.46% ( -0.1) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.13% ( 0.1) | 64.87% ( -0.1) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.53% ( 0.12) | 17.46% ( -0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.06% ( 0.2) | 47.94% ( -0.2) |
SC Farense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.3% ( -0.06) | 28.69% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.48% ( -0.08) | 64.52% ( 0.08) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | SC Farense |
2-1 @ 9.53% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.74% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.63% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 5.54% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 4.44% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.46% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.42% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.94% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.51% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.86% Total : 49.06% | 1-1 @ 10.91% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.95% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.01% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.44% ( 0) Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.52% | 1-2 @ 6.82% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 6.26% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 3.91% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 2.84% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.48% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.5% Total : 27.41% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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