Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 76.06%. A draw had a probability of 15.6% and a win for Vizela had a probability of 8.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.2%) and 3-0 (10.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.41%), while for a Vizela win it was 0-1 (3.08%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Porto | Draw | Vizela |
76.06% ( 0.24) | 15.59% ( -0.1) | 8.34% ( -0.14) |
Both teams to score 44.01% ( -0.26) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.15% ( 0) | 40.85% ( -0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.76% ( 0) | 63.24% ( -0) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.97% ( 0.06) | 9.03% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
69.26% ( 0.14) | 30.74% ( -0.14) |
Vizela Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
48.38% ( -0.32) | 51.61% ( 0.32) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
14.25% ( -0.21) | 85.75% ( 0.21) |
Score Analysis |
Porto | Draw | Vizela |
2-0 @ 13.47% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 11.2% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 10.8% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 8.91% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 7.14% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 6.49% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 4.3% ( 0) 5-0 @ 3.12% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 2.07% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.42% ( -0.01) 6-0 @ 1.25% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.51% Total : 76.05% | 1-1 @ 7.41% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 4.66% ( -0) 2-2 @ 2.95% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.58% Total : 15.59% | 0-1 @ 3.08% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 2.45% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 1.02% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.79% Total : 8.34% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |