Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 18

Jan 15, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Roma
2 - 0
Fiorentina

Dybala (40', 82')
Smalling (15'), Kumbulla (55'), Bove (63')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Dodo (4'), Gonzalez (55'), Julio (79')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Roma and Fiorentina, including team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Roma 1-0 Genoa
Thursday, January 12 at 8pm in Coppa Italia

Goals
for

Top scorers

Fiorentina

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Fiorentina 1-0 Sampdoria
Thursday, January 12 at 5pm in Coppa Italia

Goals
for

Top scorers

This one could go the distance: Roma have scored six of their last seven Serie A goals after the 80th minute, while Fiorentina have netted the most of any side in the 90th minute and beyond (five). As such, plenty of twists and turns may be in store, though the spoils are likely to end up being shared in the end. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 44.35%. A win for Fiorentina had a probability of 28.96% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (8.22%). The likeliest Fiorentina win was 0-1 (9.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.

Result
Roma	Draw	Fiorentina
44.35% ( -1.1)	26.68% ( -0.12)	28.96% ( 1.22)

Both teams to score 49.78% (

1.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.16% (

1.05)

54.84% (

-1.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.86% (

0.86)

76.13% (

-0.86)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.41% (

-0.08)

24.59% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.91% (

-0.11)

59.08% (

0.11)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.02% (

1.52)

33.98% (

-1.52)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.34% (

1.6)

70.66% (

-1.6)

Score Analysis

Roma 44.35%

Fiorentina 28.96%

Draw 26.68%

Roma	Draw	Fiorentina
1-0 @ 11.72% ( -0.51) 2-1 @ 8.88% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 8.22% ( -0.38) 3-1 @ 4.15% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 3.85% ( -0.19) 3-2 @ 2.24% ( 0.08) 4-1 @ 1.46% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.5% Total : 44.35%	1-1 @ 12.65% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.36% ( -0.35) 2-2 @ 4.79% ( 0.18) Other @ 0.89% Total : 26.68%	0-1 @ 9.02% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.83% ( 0.27) 0-2 @ 4.87% ( 0.2) 1-3 @ 2.46% ( 0.19) 0-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.14) 2-3 @ 1.72% ( 0.13) Other @ 2.31% Total : 28.96%